S.B. Ballard StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| ODU | 0 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ODU 1635
GAST 1104
Projected spread
ODU -23.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ODU
96% to win
Market spread
ODU -28.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
GAST
4.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
ODU · market 95%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1635, GAST Elo 1104) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -23.6 (96% to win) — 4.9 points of value on GAST versus the market line of -28.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ODU (top)GAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ODU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge GAST.
- ODU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. GAST rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge GAST.
Drive-by-drive
GAST 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ODU 5/14 scoring drives
ODUPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
GASTPUNT5 pl, -1 yds· own 16Q1
ODUPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
ODU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Old Dominion?
Georgia State 10, Old Dominion 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.