Georgia State vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsODU
- Q3 0:59ODUC. Joseph 14 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–27
- Q3 6:03ODUDevin Roche 3 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:46ODUNathanial Eichner 22 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 4:16ODUDevin Roche 9 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–10
- Q2 5:34ODUNathanial Eichner 19 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:56GASTLiam Rickman 36 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 11:26GASTDerrick Avery Jr. 4 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassChristian Veilleux 18/37, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordon Simmons 17 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecTed Hurst III 7 REC, 76 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 9/22, 106 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDevin Roche 21 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJa'Cory Thomas 4 REC, 64 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:16ODU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 9 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:26GAST +14%
Derrick Avery Jr. 4 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)
- Q2 9:56GAST +9%
#92 L.Rickman field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
- Q3 10:46ODU +8%
#93 N.Eichner field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD
- Q3 6:03ODU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:34ODU +6%
#93 N.Eichner field goal attempt from 19 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Old Dominion?
Georgia State 10, Old Dominion 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| GAST | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 283 | Total yards | 409 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 106 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 303 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/37 | Comp/Att | 9/22 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-105 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 27:32 | Possession | 32:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:34 ODU field goal on 4th & 2 at GAST 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:59ODUC. Joseph 14 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–27
- Q3 6:03ODUDevin Roche 3 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:46ODUNathanial Eichner 22 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 4:16ODUDevin Roche 9 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–10
- Q2 5:34ODUNathanial Eichner 19 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:56GASTLiam Rickman 36 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 11:26GASTDerrick Avery Jr. 4 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1635, GAST Elo 1104 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -23.6 (93% to win) — 4.9 points clear of GAST's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | +18.9 (#17) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 1.52 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →