| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| GASO | 3 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 41 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1316, GAST Elo 1116) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO -10.4 (78% to win) — 3.9 points of value on GASO versus the market line of -6.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GAST ahead, below = GASO ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. GAST pass defense (0.43 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GAST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern?
Georgia State 24, Georgia Southern 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.