Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsGASO
- Q4 4:33GASODalen Cobb 5 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–41
- Q4 9:50GASOCamden Brown 16 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–34
- Q4 14:58GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–27
- Q3 3:02GASTRashad Amos 3 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)24–20
- Q3 8:08GASOJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:00GASOTripp Bryant 46 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 0:46GASTTed Hurst 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:55GASTLiam Rickman 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:37GASOCamden Brown 20 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:52GASTCameran Brown 15 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:19GASOTripp Bryant 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCameran Brown 29/38, 280 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCameran Brown 15 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Robinson 7 REC, 71 YDS
- PassJC French IV 17/25, 210 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJC French IV 12 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOJ Arnold 4 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:58GASO +31%
Weston Bryan run for 1 yd for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q3 3:02GAST +31%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q3 8:08GASO +25%
JC French IV run for 4 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q2 0:46GAST +24%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 13:37GASO +17%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q1 4:52GAST +17%
Cameran Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern?
Georgia State 24, Georgia Southern 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| GAST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 444 | Total yards | 420 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 164 | Rushing yards | 208 |
| 27 | First downs | 25 |
| 10-14 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 29/38 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 15-120 | Penalties | 4-43 |
| 32:20 | Possession | 27:40 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:33GASODalen Cobb 5 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–41
- Q4 9:50GASOCamden Brown 16 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–34
- Q4 14:58GASOWeston Bryan 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)24–27
- Q3 3:02GASTRashad Amos 3 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)24–20
- Q3 8:08GASOJC French IV 4 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:00GASOTripp Bryant 46 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 0:46GASTTed Hurst 5 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:55GASTLiam Rickman 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:37GASOCamden Brown 20 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:52GASTCameran Brown 15 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:19GASOTripp Bryant 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1316, GAST Elo 1116 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -10.4 (76% to win) — 3.9 points clear of GASO's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 6–6 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| GAST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#105) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | +2 / +17 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 3.06 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →