Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| GASO | 3 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1316, GAST Elo 1116) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO -10.4 (78% to win) — 3.9 points of value on GASO versus the market line of -6.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = GAST ahead, below = GASO ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
GAST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia State 24, Georgia Southern 41.
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
David Mbadinga run for no gain to the GAST 10
JC French IV pass complete to OJ Arnold for 40 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST down
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Keron Milton
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