Bridgeforth StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| JMU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JMU 1636
GASO 1357
Projected spread
JMU -13.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
84% to win
Market spread
JMU -15.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
JMU · market 84%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1636, GASO Elo 1357) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -13.6 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelGASO 16% · JMU 84%
Market consensusGASO 16% · JMU 84%
Pick: JMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
GASO2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedJMU
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.2145%
Success rate
Key matchups · Pro
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge GASO.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →JMU 4/11 scoring drives
GASOPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
JMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 28Q1
GASOPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
JMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. James Madison?
Georgia Southern 10, James Madison 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.