Sun, Aug 31, 1:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| FRES | 10 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1441, GASO Elo 1457) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -1.8 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
FRES up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Southern 14, Fresno State 42.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 3 Bryson Donelson fumbled, recovered by GASO Davion Rhodes
E.J. Warner pass intercepted
Bryson Donelson run for 31 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayden Davis) to the GASO 39 for a 1ST down
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