Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsFRES
- Q4 6:21FRESRayshon Luke 29 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–42
- Q4 10:02FRESBrandon Ramirez 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q3 1:50FRESRayshon Luke 12 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q3 8:36FRESBryson Donelson 8 Yd Run (Josiah Freeman Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 26 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 11:33GASORiver Helms 4 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:17GASOCamden Brown 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:52FRESRayshon Luke 17 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:35FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GASO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FRES did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassJC French IV 17/28, 158 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 9 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecCamden Brown 4 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassE.J. Warner 20/27, 176 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBryson Donelson 23 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayon Farrar 3 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:36FRES +28%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds for a TD (J. Freeman Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 11:33GASO +21%
JC French IV pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q1 1:17GASO +17%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
- Q1 4:52FRES +16%
Rayshon Luke run for 17 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q3 11:36FRES +15%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the GASO 34
- Q3 1:50FRES +13%
Rayshon Luke run for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State?
Georgia Southern 14, Fresno State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| GASO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 242 | Total yards | 527 |
| 158 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 351 |
| 13 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-58 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 21:59 | Possession | 38:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 FRES field goal on 4th & 2 at GASO 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:21FRESRayshon Luke 29 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–42
- Q4 10:02FRESBrandon Ramirez 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q3 1:50FRESRayshon Luke 12 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q3 8:36FRESBryson Donelson 8 Yd Run (Josiah Freeman Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 26 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 11:33GASORiver Helms 4 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:17GASOCamden Brown 18 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:52FRESRayshon Luke 17 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:35FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1441, GASO Elo 1457 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -1.8 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →