Valley Children's Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| FRES | 10 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FRES 1441
GASO 1457
Projected spread
FRES -1.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
55% to win
Market spread
FRES -1
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
FRES · market 32%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1441, GASO Elo 1457) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -1.8 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FRES (top)GASO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 7/11 scoring drives
FRESFG14 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q1
GASOPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
FRESTD3 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State?
Georgia Southern 14, Fresno State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.