Fresno State vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsORST
- Q4 0:04FRESJakari Embry 45 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)36–27
- Q4 0:29FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 29–27
- Q4 1:19ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 34 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–27
- Q4 9:06FRESDylan Lynch 28 Yd Field Goal 26–21
- Q4 13:57FRESDylan Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q3 3:44ORSTJake Reichle 4 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–21
- Q2 0:45FRESJaden Carrillo 42 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)20–15
- Q2 3:23ORSTCaleb Ojeda 27 Yd Field Goal 14–15
- Q2 8:43FRESRayshon Luke 44 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–12
- Q2 11:27ORSTMalachi Durant 10 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–12
- Q1 7:24ORSTEddie Freauff 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 12:24FRESE.J. Warner 30 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassE.J. Warner 13/18, 121 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRayshon Luke 12 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosiah Freeman 5 REC, 82 YDS
- PassMaalik Murphy 31/48, 371 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 25 CAR, 136 YDS
- RecTaz Reddicks 11 REC, 158 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:19ORST +77%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 0:01FRES +41%
E.J. Warner takes a knee
- Q4 2:00ORST +35%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 5 yds to the ORST 37
- Q4 2:08FRES +29%
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 32
- Q4 9:06FRES +26%
Dylan Lynch 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:33ORST +26%
Maalik Murphy pass to Taz Reddicks for 9 yds to the ORST 42
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Oregon State?
Fresno State 36, Oregon State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| FRES | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 528 |
| 121 | Passing yards | 388 |
| 197 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 15 | First downs | 30 |
| 1-8 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/18 | Comp/Att | 32/49 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 10-70 |
| 22:35 | Possession | 37:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:18 ORST go for it on 4th & 14 at ORST 37. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.06 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:04FRESJakari Embry 45 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)36–27
- Q4 0:29FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 29–27
- Q4 1:19ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 34 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–27
- Q4 9:06FRESDylan Lynch 28 Yd Field Goal 26–21
- Q4 13:57FRESDylan Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q3 3:44ORSTJake Reichle 4 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–21
- Q2 0:45FRESJaden Carrillo 42 Yd Punt Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)20–15
- Q2 3:23ORSTCaleb Ojeda 27 Yd Field Goal 14–15
- Q2 8:43FRESRayshon Luke 44 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–12
- Q2 11:27ORSTMalachi Durant 10 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–12
- Q1 7:24ORSTEddie Freauff 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 12:24FRESE.J. Warner 30 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1371, FRES Elo 1516 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +3.4 (42% to win) — 4.4 points clear of FRES's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 9–6 · 27% have been one-possession games
| FRES | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#73) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →