Sat, Sep 6, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 36 |
| ORST | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1371, FRES Elo 1516) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +3.4 (40% to win) — 4.4 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -1.
ORST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Fresno State 36, Oregon State 27.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Rayshon Luke run for 44 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 30 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST down
E.J. Warner pass to Josiah Freeman for 30 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST down
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