Reser StadiumClosing line: ORST -1 · FRES covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 36 |
| ORST | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
Team stats
FRESthis game · better side highlightedORST
320
Total yards
544121
Passing yards
388199
Rushing yards
15615
First downs
301-8 · 13%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1371
FRES 1516
Projected spread
ORST +3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
60% to win
Market spread
ORST -1
sportsbook line
Model edge
FRES
4.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
40%
ORST · market 96%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1371, FRES Elo 1516) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +3.4 (40% to win) — 4.4 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -1.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge FRES.
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORST.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 4/7 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 5/8 scoring drives
FRESTD6 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
ORSTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 36Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ORST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
ORST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Oregon State?
Fresno State 36, Oregon State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.