Albertsons StadiumConference gameClosing line: BOIS -17.5 · FRES covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 30 |
| BOIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Team stats
FRESthis game · better side highlightedBOIS
224
Total yards
19335
Passing yards
102189
Rushing yards
9115
First downs
115-16 · 31%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BOIS 1724
FRES 1360
Projected spread
BOIS -17
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
90% to win
Market spread
BOIS -17.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
90%
BOIS · market 88%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1724, FRES Elo 1360) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -17 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BOIS (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BOIS 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge FRES.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 6/16 scoring drives← own end zone →BOIS 1/14 scoring drives
BOISPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
FRESPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 27Q1
BOISPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 38Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FRES went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Boise State?
Fresno State 30, Boise State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.