Fordham vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Fordham
Boston College
▸Final
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
FORDTeam statsBC
168Total yards555
152Pass458
16Rush97
13First downs26
3-163rd down12-18
1Turnovers0
25:55Possession34:05
- Q4 1:55BCDawson Pough 22 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–66
- Q4 5:00FORDGunnar Smith 1 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)10–59
- Q4 9:11BCBo MacCormack III 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–59
- Q4 10:56BCAlex Broome 1 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–52
- Q3 0:30BCTurbo Richard 4 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–45
- Q3 5:21BCReed Harris 17 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:59BCLuca Lombardo 48 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q3 14:47BCDaveon Crouch 28 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:26BCJaedn Skeete 13 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:19BCJaedn Skeete 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:04FORDBennett Henderson 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:31BCJordan McDonald 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
BC −34.5
Against the number
BC covered
line BC −34.5
What the numbers say
- FORD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 4.2
FORD aheadBC ahead
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FORD ahead, below = BC ahead.
GRIDPEX.COM
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Closing line
BC −34.5
Closing total
53.0
Model line
—
Actual result
FORD 10 – 66 BC
Fordham
- PassGunnar Smith 20/39, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRicky Parks 9 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecNodin Tracy 3 REC, 34 YDS
Boston College
- PassDylan Lonergan 26/34, 268 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTurbo Richard 16 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLewis Bond 11 REC, 138 YDS
6.6sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
145
Points / snap
0.52
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
BC went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fordham vs. Boston College?
Fordham 10, Boston College 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BC) was correct.
FORD
BC
30%
Success rate
51%
-0.22
EPA / pass
0.82
-0.14
EPA / rush
0.04
31%
Early-down success
46%
30%
Pass success
63%
29%
Rush success
38%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
29%
Stuffed rush rate
11%
64%
Pass rate
53%
9.2
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.2
FORD
9.2 yards to go on 3rd down
67 scrimmage snaps
BC
4.2 yards to go on 3rd down
78 scrimmage snaps
| FORD | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 168 | Total yards | 555 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 458 |
| 16 | Rushing yards | 97 |
| 13 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 12-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/39 | Comp/Att | 31/39 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 0.6 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 25:55 | Possession | 34:05 |
FORD
9/11 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
BC
4/6 with the model
−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 12:02 FORD punt on 4th & 2 at FORD 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishFORD 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →BC 9/14 scoring drives
BCTD13 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
FORDFG8 pl, 35 yds· own 36Q1
BCTD6 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1
FORDPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 15Q1
BCPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q1
FORDPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q1
BCPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 37Q2
FORDPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q2
BCPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
FORDPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 19Q2
BCUncateg3 pl, -5 yds· own 32Q2
FORDPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 27Q2
BCTD10 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2
FORDFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
FORDTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
FORDPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 18Q3
BCFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 35Q3
FORDPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 19Q3
BCTD9 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
FORDPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
BCTD5 pl, 19 yds· opp 19Q3
FORDPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
BCTD7 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q4
FORDPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
BCTD2 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q4
FORDTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
BCTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
FORDPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q4
BCUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· midfieldQ4
- Q4 1:55BCDawson Pough 22 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–66
- Q4 5:00FORDGunnar Smith 1 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)10–59
- Q4 9:11BCBo MacCormack III 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–59
- Q4 10:56BCAlex Broome 1 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–52
- Q3 0:30BCTurbo Richard 4 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–45
- Q3 5:21BCReed Harris 17 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:59BCLuca Lombardo 48 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q3 14:47BCDaveon Crouch 28 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:26BCJaedn Skeete 13 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:19BCJaedn Skeete 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:04FORDBennett Henderson 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:31BCJordan McDonald 11 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →