Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsFIU
- Q4 7:45FAUJarvis Johnson 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Garrison Smith Kick)28–38
- Q3 4:55FIUAnthony Carrie 1 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–38
- Q3 9:04FIUAlex Perry 26 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–31
- Q3 11:31FIUKeyone Jenkins 4 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:57FAUXavier Terrell 32 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)21–17
- Q2 3:32FIURobert Czeremcha 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:36FAUEaston Messer 23 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:56FIUKejon Owens 1 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:43FAUCaden Veltkamp 10 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:43FIUKejon Owens 4 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassCaden Veltkamp 33/51, 343 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushGemari Sands 14 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecJayshon Platt 5 REC, 90 YDS
- PassKeyone Jenkins 18/24, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKejon Owens 19 CAR, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMaguire Anderson 5 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:57FAU +23%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Xavier Terrell for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q3 11:31FIU +23%
Keyone Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD Florida Atlantic Penalty, Defensive Holding (Wendol Philord) declined (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
- Q2 9:36FAU +18%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 23 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q3 9:04FIU +16%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 26 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
- Q2 14:56FIU +16%
Kejon Owens run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
- Q1 3:43FAU +16%
Caden Veltkamp run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International?
Florida Atlantic 28, Florida International 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 478 | Total yards | 408 |
| 343 | Passing yards | 184 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 224 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 33/51 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-92 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 26:05 | Possession | 33:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:24 FAU go for it on 4th & 12 at FIU 14. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:45FAUJarvis Johnson 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Garrison Smith Kick)28–38
- Q3 4:55FIUAnthony Carrie 1 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–38
- Q3 9:04FIUAlex Perry 26 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–31
- Q3 11:31FIUKeyone Jenkins 4 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:57FAUXavier Terrell 32 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)21–17
- Q2 3:32FIURobert Czeremcha 39 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 9:36FAUEaston Messer 23 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:56FIUKejon Owens 1 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:43FAUCaden Veltkamp 10 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:43FIUKejon Owens 4 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1358, FAU Elo 1240 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU -7.1 (69% to win) — 5.1 points clear of FIU's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#103) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#109) |
| -1 / +12 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →