Pitbull Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| FIU | 7 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1358
FAU 1240
Projected spread
FIU -7.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
FIU
70% to win
Market spread
FIU -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
FIU
5.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
70%
FIU · market 53%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1358, FAU Elo 1240) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU -7.1 (70% to win) — 5.1 points of value on FIU versus the market line of -2.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FIU (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FIU.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 7/14 scoring drives
FAUINT4 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
FIUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 30Q1
FAUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 39Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FIU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FIU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International?
Florida Atlantic 28, Florida International 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.