Sat, Sep 13, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| FIU | 7 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1358, FAU Elo 1240) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU -7.1 (70% to win) — 5.1 points of value on FIU versus the market line of -2.
FIU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida Atlantic 28, Florida International 38.
Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jarvis Johnson 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Garrison Smith Kick)
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Deshaun Batiste for a loss of 9 yards to the FAU 12
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Mister Clark return for 25 yds to the FIU 25
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