Kroger Field
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 23 |
| UK | 14 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 48 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UK 1524
EMU 1253
Projected spread
UK -13.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UK
84% to win
Market spread
UK -26.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
EMU
13.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
UK · market 93%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1524, EMU Elo 1253) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK -13.2 (84% to win) — 13.3 points of value on EMU versus the market line of -26.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UK (top)EMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UK 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UK pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- UK rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. UK rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
EMU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UK 8/13 scoring drives
EMUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
UKTD2 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q1
EMUDOWNS8 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UK up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
UK went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky?
Eastern Michigan 23, Kentucky 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UK pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.