Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsUK
- Q4 0:58EMUNoah Kim 5 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)23–48
- Q4 4:46UKJason Patterson 6 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)16–48
- Q4 13:16UKJacob Kauwe 24 Yd Field Goal 16–41
- Q3 5:15UKSeth McGowan 8 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)16–38
- Q3 8:13UKJacob Kauwe 51 Yd Field Goal 16–31
- Q2 0:03EMURudy Kessinger 50 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q2 1:36EMUTerry Lockett Jr. 64 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)13–28
- Q2 1:55UKJosh Kattus 4 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)6–28
- Q2 5:19EMURudy Kessinger 37 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 10:18UKWillie Rodriguez 3 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)3–21
- Q1 2:20EMURudy Kessinger 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:32UKSeth McGowan 12 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:11UKSeth McGowan 4 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNoah Kim 25/42, 330 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 13 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecTerry Lockett Jr. 3 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCutter Boley 12/21, 240 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSeth McGowan 18 CAR, 104 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJosh Kattus 3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky?
Eastern Michigan 23, Kentucky 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
| EMU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 461 | Total yards | 492 |
| 330 | Passing yards | 240 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/43 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 7-68 |
| 30:04 | Possession | 29:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:03 EMU field goal on 4th & 1 at UK 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.24 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:58EMUNoah Kim 5 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)23–48
- Q4 4:46UKJason Patterson 6 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)16–48
- Q4 13:16UKJacob Kauwe 24 Yd Field Goal 16–41
- Q3 5:15UKSeth McGowan 8 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)16–38
- Q3 8:13UKJacob Kauwe 51 Yd Field Goal 16–31
- Q2 0:03EMURudy Kessinger 50 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q2 1:36EMUTerry Lockett Jr. 64 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)13–28
- Q2 1:55UKJosh Kattus 4 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)6–28
- Q2 5:19EMURudy Kessinger 37 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 10:18UKWillie Rodriguez 3 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)3–21
- Q1 2:20EMURudy Kessinger 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:32UKSeth McGowan 12 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:11UKSeth McGowan 4 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1524, EMU Elo 1253 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK -13.2 (81% to win) — 13.3 points clear of EMU's market line of -26.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| EMU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#114) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| -3 / +13 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →