Eastern Kentucky vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Kentucky

0017

Louisville

▸0051

Final

L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	7	0	10	17
LOU	21	20	7	3	51

EASTTeam statsLOU

150Total yards542

76Pass313

74Rush229

10First downs28

3-143rd down6-9

0Turnovers3

29:35Possession30:25

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:06EASTBuzz Flabiano 38 Yd Field Goal 17–51
• Q4 8:23LOUCooper Ranvier 23 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q4 14:18EASTBrady Hensley 2 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)14–48
• Q3 9:06LOUKris Hughes 31 Yd pass from Brady Allen (Nick Keller Kick)7–48
• Q2 0:50EASTVito Tisdale 29 Yd Interception Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–41
• Q2 2:58LOUKeyjuan Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Keller PAT failed)0–41
• Q2 8:26LOUDuke Watson 30 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:05LOUIsaac Brown 68 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–28
• Q1 0:44LOUMiller Moss 8 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:49LOUCaullin Lacy 93 Yd Punt Return (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:48LOUIsaac Brown 31 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

LOU −37.5

Against the number

EAST covered

line LOU −37.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST aheadLOU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = EAST ahead, below = LOU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

LOU −37.5

Closing total

57.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 17 – 51 LOU

Leaders

Eastern Kentucky

• PassMyles Burkett 5/14, 76 YDS
• RushBrayden Latham 10 CAR, 25 YDS
• RecMarcus Calwise Jr. 1 REC, 29 YDS

Louisville

• PassMiller Moss 17/25, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushIsaac Brown 6 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD
• RecChris Bell 5 REC, 63 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

11.9sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LOU up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

LOU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWashington vs Michigan State41-7WClemson vs Florida Atlantic48-14WUCF vs Villanova48-14WStephen F. Austin vs Northwestern State41-7WDuke vs UConn41-7

Fourth downs

12 calls

EAST gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 7/9 · LOU 1/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Louisville?

Eastern Kentucky 17, Louisville 51.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

LOU

24%

Success rate

61%

-0.20

EPA / pass

0.29

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.41

20%

Early-down success

59%

25%

Pass success

63%

23%

Rush success

58%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

36%

Pass rate

56%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

EAST

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

LOU

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		LOU
150	Total yards	542
76	Passing yards	313
74	Rushing yards	229
10	First downs	28
3-14	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	0-0
5/14	Comp/Att	25/37
5.4	Yards per pass	8.5
1.9	Yards per rush	7.6
0	Turnovers	3
8-51	Penalties	12-106
29:35	Possession	30:25

Fourth downs

12 calls

EAST

7/9 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

LOU

1/2 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 8:23 LOU field goal on 4th & 2 at EAST 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LOU 8/12 scoring drives

LOUTD10 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1

EASTTD3 pl, -5 yds· own 46Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1

LOUTD10 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1

EASTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

LOUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 7Q2

LOUTD1 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

LOUTD10 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

EASTPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q2

LOUTD1 pl, 11 yds· own 10Q2

LOUINT4 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

EASTEND1 pl, -6 yds· opp 46Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3

LOUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 24Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 16Q3

LOUTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q3

EASTPUNT8 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q3

LOUINT7 pl, 27 yds· own 3Q3

EASTTD4 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q3

LOUFG11 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q4

EASTFG13 pl, 69 yds· own 10Q4

LOUEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:06EASTBuzz Flabiano 38 Yd Field Goal 17–51
• Q4 8:23LOUCooper Ranvier 23 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q4 14:18EASTBrady Hensley 2 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)14–48
• Q3 9:06LOUKris Hughes 31 Yd pass from Brady Allen (Nick Keller Kick)7–48
• Q2 0:50EASTVito Tisdale 29 Yd Interception Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–41
• Q2 2:58LOUKeyjuan Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Keller PAT failed)0–41
• Q2 8:26LOUDuke Watson 30 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:05LOUIsaac Brown 68 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–28
• Q1 0:44LOUMiller Moss 8 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:49LOUCaullin Lacy 93 Yd Punt Return (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:48LOUIsaac Brown 31 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →