East Tennessee State vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

East Tennessee State

0017

Tennessee1-0

▸0072

Final

Neyland Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	7	3	7	17
TENN	24	24	14	10	72

EASTTeam statsTENN

216Total yards717

167Pass458

49Rush259

10First downs41

2-153rd down10-14

0Turnovers1

24:58Possession35:02

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:55TENNDaune Morris 10 Yd Run (Josh Turbyville Kick)17–72
• Q4 8:46EASTJason Albritton 20 Yd Run (Ewan Johnson Kick)17–65
• Q4 10:43TENNMax Gilbert 53 Yd Field Goal 10–65
• Q3 2:45TENNJack Van Dorselaer 7 Yd pass from Jake Merklinger (Josh Turbyville Kick)10–62
• Q3 8:45TENNChris Brazzell II 1 Yd pass from Jake Merklinger (Josh Turbyville Kick)10–55
• Q3 8:50TENNJ. Merklinger pass to C. Brazzell II for 33 yds for a TD10–54
• Q3 11:52EASTEwan Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 10–48
• Q2 0:22TENNStar Thomas 7 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–48
• Q2 1:55EASTTaharin Sudderth 5 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Ewan Johnson Kick)7–41
• Q2 4:08TENNMike Matthews 53 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–41
• Q2 8:03TENNMax Gilbert 37 Yd Field Goal 0–34
• Q2 8:03TENNM. Gilbert 37 yd FG GOOD,East Tennessee State penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (M. Jenkins)0–34
• Q2 11:41TENNStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–31
• Q1 0:46TENNPeyton Lewis 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–24
• Q1 7:07TENNStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–17
• Q1 9:28TENNMax Gilbert 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 13:08TENNChris Brazzell II 21 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TENN −40

Against the number

TENN covered

line TENN −40

What the numbers say

• EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST aheadTENN ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = EAST ahead, below = TENN ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TENN −40

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 17 – 72 TENN

Leaders

East Tennessee State

• PassCade McNamara 11/18, 85 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJason Albritton 4 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCole Keller 3 REC, 47 YDS

Tennessee

• PassJoey Aguilar 23/31, 288 YDS, 2 TD
• RushStar Thomas 12 CAR, 69 YDS, 3 TD
• RecChris Brazzell II 9 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

159

Points / snap

0.56

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TENN up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNorth Dakota State vs Western Illinois52-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg52-0WMontana vs Morehead State59-2WGeorgia Tech vs VMI59-7WUC Davis vs Northern Colorado59-7

Fourth downs

18 calls

TENN gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 12/12 · TENN 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of East Tennessee State vs. Tennessee?

East Tennessee State 17, Tennessee 72.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

TENN

24%

Success rate

60%

0.02

EPA / pass

0.58

-0.03

EPA / rush

0.39

29%

Early-down success

59%

23%

Pass success

60%

26%

Rush success

60%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

60%

Pass rate

53%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

EAST

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

TENN

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

101 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		TENN
216	Total yards	717
167	Passing yards	458
49	Rushing yards	259
10	First downs	41
2-15	3rd down	10-14
0-1	4th down	0-0
19/31	Comp/Att	38/52
5.4	Yards per pass	8.8
1.8	Yards per rush	5.4
0	Turnovers	1
8-48	Penalties	6-45
24:58	Possession	35:02

Fourth downs

18 calls

EAST

12/12 with the model

nothing given up

TENN

4/5 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 4:02 TENN punt on 4th & 5 at EAST 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →TENN 12/15 scoring drives

TENNTD6 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1

TENNFG7 pl, 38 yds· opp 49Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1

TENNTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

TENNPUNT6 pl, 43 yds· own 18Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 3Q1

TENNTD3 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

TENNTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

EASTDOWNS5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

TENNFG6 pl, 26 yds· opp 45Q2

EASTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 27Q2

TENNTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

EASTPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

TENNFUM2 pl, -14 yds· own 19Q2

EASTTD1 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q2

TENNTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

EASTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

EASTFG8 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q3

TENNTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

EASTPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

TENNTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

EASTPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3

TENNFG12 pl, 41 yds· own 24Q3

EASTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

TENNTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

TENNEND4 pl, 22 yds· own 17Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:55TENNDaune Morris 10 Yd Run (Josh Turbyville Kick)17–72
• Q4 8:46EASTJason Albritton 20 Yd Run (Ewan Johnson Kick)17–65
• Q4 10:43TENNMax Gilbert 53 Yd Field Goal 10–65
• Q3 2:45TENNJack Van Dorselaer 7 Yd pass from Jake Merklinger (Josh Turbyville Kick)10–62
• Q3 8:45TENNChris Brazzell II 1 Yd pass from Jake Merklinger (Josh Turbyville Kick)10–55
• Q3 8:50TENNJ. Merklinger pass to C. Brazzell II for 33 yds for a TD10–54
• Q3 11:52EASTEwan Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 10–48
• Q2 0:22TENNStar Thomas 7 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–48
• Q2 1:55EASTTaharin Sudderth 5 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Ewan Johnson Kick)7–41
• Q2 4:08TENNMike Matthews 53 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–41
• Q2 8:03TENNMax Gilbert 37 Yd Field Goal 0–34
• Q2 8:03TENNM. Gilbert 37 yd FG GOOD,East Tennessee State penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (M. Jenkins)0–34
• Q2 11:41TENNStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–31
• Q1 0:46TENNPeyton Lewis 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–24
• Q1 7:07TENNStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–17
• Q1 9:28TENNMax Gilbert 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 13:08TENNChris Brazzell II 21 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →