East Carolina vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 8:32ECUNick Mazzie 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 14:56ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 4 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–24
- Q3 3:43NCSUHollywood Smothers 2 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)7–24
- Q2 2:21ECUJayvontay Conner 79 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:03NCSUWesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:33NCSUCJ Bailey 11 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:34NCSUNick Konieczynski 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ECU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassKatin Houser 30/44, 366 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLondon Montgomery 8 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecJayvontay Conner 2 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCJ Bailey 24/34, 318 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHollywood Smothers 22 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWesley Grimes 4 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:38NCSU +16%
CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for no gain to the ECU 48
- Q4 5:41NCSU +11%
Nick Konieczynski 46 Yard Field Goal Missed
- Q2 2:21ECU +10%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 79 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined (Nick Mazzie KICK)
- Q2 11:03NCSU +9%
Wesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick)
- Q4 14:56ECU +9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
- Q4 8:32ECU +8%
Nick Mazzie 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. NC State?
East Carolina 17, NC State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
| ECU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 423 |
| 383 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 30 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/45 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-86 | Penalties | 7-63 |
| 27:53 | Possession | 32:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:57 ECU go for it on 4th & 8 at ECU 19. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:32ECUNick Mazzie 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 14:56ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 4 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–24
- Q3 3:43NCSUHollywood Smothers 2 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)7–24
- Q2 2:21ECUJayvontay Conner 79 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:03NCSUWesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:33NCSUCJ Bailey 11 Yd Run (Nick Konieczynski Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:34NCSUNick Konieczynski 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1501, ECU Elo 1435 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -5 (64% to win) — 8.5 points clear of ECU's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNC State leads 20–14 · 35% have been one-possession games
| ECU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#46) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →