Carter-Finley Stadium
Thu, Aug 28, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| NCSU | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1501, ECU Elo 1435) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -5 (65% to win) — 8.5 points of value on ECU versus the market line of -13.5.
NCSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
East Carolina 17, NC State 24.
Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NCSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 79 yds for a TD NC State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined (Nick Mazzie KICK)
Wesley Grimes 48 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Nick Konieczynski Kick)
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 10
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