Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 10 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 38 |
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1262, ECU Elo 1429) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU +4.3 (38% to win) — 2.7 points of value on CCU versus the market line of +7.
ECU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
East Carolina 38, Coastal Carolina 0.
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 39 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST down
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the CCU 19
Tad Hudson pass intercepted Ja'Marley Riddle return for 35 yds to the ECU 38
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