Brooks Stadium (SC)Closing line: ECU +-7 · ECU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 10 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 38 |
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team stats
ECUthis game · better side highlightedCCU
497
Total yards
239293
Passing yards
172204
Rushing yards
6729
First downs
189-16 · 56%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CCU 1262
ECU 1429
Projected spread
CCU +4.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
62% to win
Market spread
CCU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
38%
CCU · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1262, ECU Elo 1429) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU +4.3 (38% to win) — 2.7 points of value on CCU versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CCU (top)ECU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ECU.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge CCU.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
ECU 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 0/13 scoring drives
ECUPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
CCUMISS7 pl, 41 yds· own 28Q1
ECUTD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ECU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
ECU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina?
East Carolina 38, Coastal Carolina 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.