Duke
1-1·ACC· Elo 1462
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 0 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 |
| TULN | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1642, DUKE Elo 1462) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -9.6 (76% to win) — 9.1 points of value on TULN versus the market line of -0.5.
TULN up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 27, Tulane 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 63 yds to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST down
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 24 yds to the TULN 10 for a 1ST down
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