Duke vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsSYR
- Q4 11:04DUKEAnderson Castle 13 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)38–3
- Q3 5:34DUKENate Sheppard 12 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)31–3
- Q2 1:55DUKECooper Barkate 12 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)24–3
- Q2 12:01DUKECooper Barkate 34 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)17–3
- Q1 3:12DUKENate Sheppard 49 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:10SYRTripp Woody 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:42DUKETodd Pelino 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SYR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassDarian Mensah 22/28, 268 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 15 CAR, 168 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCooper Barkate 4 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- PassRickie Collins 24/37, 229 YDS, 1 INT
- RushYasin Willis 11 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecJohntay Cook II 6 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00DUKE +100%
Kneel down by Duke at DUKE01 for loss of 1 yard
- Q1 4:10SYR +60%
Tripp Woody 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 2:53SYR +28%
PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA38 to DUKE47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 4:47DUKE +22%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Davien Kerr at the SYR 15
- Q1 3:12DUKE +19%
Nate Sheppard run for 49 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 12:01DUKE +18%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Syracuse?
Duke 38, Syracuse 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SYR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 503 | Total yards | 314 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 235 | Rushing yards | 85 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 22/28 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-105 | Penalties | 4-55 |
| 31:15 | Possession | 28:45 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:37 SYR go for it on 4th & 8 at DUKE 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:04DUKEAnderson Castle 13 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)38–3
- Q3 5:34DUKENate Sheppard 12 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)31–3
- Q2 1:55DUKECooper Barkate 12 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)24–3
- Q2 12:01DUKECooper Barkate 34 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)17–3
- Q1 3:12DUKENate Sheppard 49 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:10SYRTripp Woody 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:42DUKETodd Pelino 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1535, DUKE Elo 1489 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR -4.2 (62% to win) — 8.2 points clear of SYR's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DUKE | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 1.12 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.89 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →