Duke
ACC· Elo 1489
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 10 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| SYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SYR Elo 1535, DUKE Elo 1489) plus home-field advantage. That projects SYR -4.2 (62% to win) — 8.2 points of value on SYR versus the market line of +4.
DUKE up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 38, Syracuse 3.
No — the model picked SYR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SYR pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Jaden Hart
Rickie Collins pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for 40 yds to the SYR 45
Nate Sheppard run for 49 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
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