| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 32 |
| UNC | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNC Elo 1361, DUKE Elo 1576) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC +6.2 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
DUKE up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Duke 32, North Carolina 25.
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had DUKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
(00:13) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #18 C.Barkate caught at UNC36, for 24 yards to the UNC36 (#24 J.Butts), 1ST DOWN
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 29 yards gain to the UNC46 (#21 K.Cost), 1ST DOWN
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