Duke vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsUNC
- Q4 2:18DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Darian Mensah Pass to Nate Sheppard for Two-Point Conversion)32–25
- Q4 13:13UNCDavion Gause 12 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)24–25
- Q3 4:52UNCJordan Shipp 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Gio Lopez Pass to Jordan Shipp for Two-Point Conversion)24–18
- Q3 9:15DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:07UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:33DUKETodd Pelino 33 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 10:25DUKEJeremiah Hasley 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:59DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:57UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDarian Mensah 20/33, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 22 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecJeremiah Hasley 7 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGio Lopez 21/27, 204 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDavion Gause 8 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Shipp 8 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:29UNC +20%
No Huddle #12 D.June rush right for 0 yards to the UNC37 (#97 W.Williams; #7 V.Anthony Jr.)
- Q4 8:44UNC +8%
Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC38 (#42 K.Johnson)
- Q4 6:31UNC +7%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DU 37 (#4 M.Gbayor; #7 K.House)
- Q4 13:06DUKE +7%
Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to DU 35
- Q3 2:34UNC +6%
Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC03, for 16 yards to the UNC25 (#34 L.Mergott), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:46DUKE +6%
Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the DU 25 (#92 C.Mims)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. North Carolina?
Duke 32, North Carolina 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| DUKE | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 305 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 204 |
| 177 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 5-6 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 21/27 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-27 | Penalties | 12-103 |
| 36:00 | Possession | 24:00 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:43 DUKE punt on 4th & 9 at UNC 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:18DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Darian Mensah Pass to Nate Sheppard for Two-Point Conversion)32–25
- Q4 13:13UNCDavion Gause 12 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)24–25
- Q3 4:52UNCJordan Shipp 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Gio Lopez Pass to Jordan Shipp for Two-Point Conversion)24–18
- Q3 9:15DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:07UNCRece Verhoff 49 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 2:33DUKETodd Pelino 33 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 10:25DUKEJeremiah Hasley 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:59DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:57UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1361, DUKE Elo 1576 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC +6.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 63–38–4 · Duke has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | -10.5 (#97) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | -8 / +3 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →