Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsUVA
- Q4 7:03UVAWill Bettridge 41 Yd Field Goal 7–48
- Q4 11:13UVAWill Bettridge 32 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 4:12UVACam Ross 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Will Bettridge Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:26CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 8 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:41UVAJ'Mari Taylor 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:18UVAJahmal Edrine 2 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–28
- Q2 3:27UVACam Ross 29 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–21
- Q2 11:22UVAHarrison Waylee 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:01UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassMJ Morris 20/36, 163 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDominic Lee-Knicely 7 CAR, 27 YDS
- RecBrooks Johnson 2 REC, 36 YDS
- PassChandler Morris 19/27, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChandler Morris 5 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecCameron Ross 7 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia?
Coastal Carolina 7, Virginia 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| CCU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 454 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 1-14 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 26:27 | Possession | 33:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:03 UVA field goal on 4th & 2 at CCU 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:03UVAWill Bettridge 41 Yd Field Goal 7–48
- Q4 11:13UVAWill Bettridge 32 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 4:12UVACam Ross 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Will Bettridge Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:26CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 8 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:41UVAJ'Mari Taylor 2 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:18UVAJahmal Edrine 2 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–28
- Q2 3:27UVACam Ross 29 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–21
- Q2 11:22UVAHarrison Waylee 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:01UVAJ'Mari Taylor 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1404, CCU Elo 1379 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -3.4 (60% to win) — 9.6 points clear of CCU's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →