Scott StadiumClosing line: UVA -13 · UVA covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| UVA | 7 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 48 |
Team stats
CCUthis game · better side highlightedUVA
261
Total yards
467163
Passing yards
29098
Rushing yards
17713
First downs
231-14 · 7%
Third down
9-18 · 50%Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UVA 1404
CCU 1379
Projected spread
UVA -3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UVA
60% to win
Market spread
UVA -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
9.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
UVA · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1404, CCU Elo 1379) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -3.4 (60% to win) — 9.6 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -13.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UVA (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UVA 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UVA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge UVA.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 1/15 scoring drives← own end zone →UVA 6/13 scoring drives
UVAMISS8 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q1
CCUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 34Q1
UVADOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 28Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UVA up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
UVA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia?
Coastal Carolina 7, Virginia 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.