Williams-Brice StadiumClosing line: SC -2.5 · CLEM covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEM | 0 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 28 |
| SC | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Team stats
CLEMthis game · better side highlightedSC
415
Total yards
422268
Passing yards
381147
Rushing yards
4125
First downs
177-17 · 41%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SC 1730
CLEM 1725
Projected spread
SC -2.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
SC
58% to win
Market spread
SC -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
58%
SC · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1730, CLEM Elo 1725) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SC (top)CLEM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CLEM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge CLEM.
- SC rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CLEM rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge SC.
- SC pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. CLEM pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge CLEM.
Drive-by-drive
CLEM 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 3/13 scoring drives
CLEMPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
SCPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q1
CLEMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 45Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CLEM up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
CLEM went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. South Carolina?
Clemson 28, South Carolina 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.