Clemson vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLEMTeam statsSC
- Q4 3:20CLEMRicardo Jones 12 Yd Interception Return (Cade Klubnik Pass to Adam Randall for Two-Point Conversion)28–14
- Q3 8:32CLEMNolan Hauser 42 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:56CLEMNolan Hauser 32 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 5:29SCVandrevius Jacobs 74 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)14–14
- Q2 5:48CLEMCade Klubnik 3 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:14SCNyck Harbor 53 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:37CLEMAdam Randall 10 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CLEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 8.0
- SC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassCade Klubnik 24/39, 268 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAdam Randall 24 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecT.J. Moore 6 REC, 101 YDS
- PassLaNorris Sellers 23/42, 381 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 5 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecVandrevius Jacobs 7 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:29SC +26%
Vandrevius Jacobs 74 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)
- Q2 5:48CLEM +22%
Cade Klubnik 3 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)
- Q4 3:36CLEM +21%
PENALTY CLE Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC38 to USC43. NO PLAY
- Q2 1:28CLEM +21%
Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass incomplete deep left to #0 A.Williams thrown to USC00 broken up by #24 J.Kilgore PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#24 J.Kilgore) 15 yards from…
- Q2 11:14SC +21%
Nyck Harbor 53 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)
- Q2 12:37CLEM +20%
#8 A.Randall rush right for 10 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. South Carolina?
Clemson 28, South Carolina 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLEM | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 415 | Total yards | 422 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 381 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 41 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 23/42 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 38:44 | Possession | 21:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:13 CLEM punt on 4th & 1 at CLEM 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20CLEMRicardo Jones 12 Yd Interception Return (Cade Klubnik Pass to Adam Randall for Two-Point Conversion)28–14
- Q3 8:32CLEMNolan Hauser 42 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 0:56CLEMNolan Hauser 32 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 5:29SCVandrevius Jacobs 74 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)14–14
- Q2 5:48CLEMCade Klubnik 3 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:14SCNyck Harbor 53 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:37CLEMAdam Randall 10 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1730, CLEM Elo 1725 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesClemson leads 70–43–4 · 38% have been one-possession games
| CLEM | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#56) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| +2 / -3 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →