Charlotte vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLTTeam statsECU
- Q4 13:21ECUNick Mazzie 50 Yd Field Goal 22–48
- Q3 6:33ECUKatin Houser 11 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)22–45
- Q3 8:54CLTJaven Nicholas 43 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Grayson Loftis Pass to Sean Brown for Two-Point Conversion)22–38
- Q3 11:00ECUNick Mazzie 40 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q2 1:31CLTSean Brown 4 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)14–35
- Q2 2:24ECUYannick Smith 8 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:52CLTJaven Nicholas 46 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:58ECUKatin Houser 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:22ECUTyMir Brown 45 Yd Interception Return (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:53ECUAnthony Smith 3 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:03ECULondon Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassGrayson Loftis 20/31, 279 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushCameren Smith 5 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecSean Brown 7 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKatin Houser 26/41, 224 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLondon Montgomery 11 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Smith 8 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. East Carolina?
Charlotte 22, East Carolina 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| CLT | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 324 | Total yards | 407 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 224 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 13 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 26/44 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 25:58 | Possession | 34:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:04 CLT punt on 4th & 1 at CLT 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:21ECUNick Mazzie 50 Yd Field Goal 22–48
- Q3 6:33ECUKatin Houser 11 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)22–45
- Q3 8:54CLTJaven Nicholas 43 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Grayson Loftis Pass to Sean Brown for Two-Point Conversion)22–38
- Q3 11:00ECUNick Mazzie 40 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q2 1:31CLTSean Brown 4 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)14–35
- Q2 2:24ECUYannick Smith 8 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:52CLTJaven Nicholas 46 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:58ECUKatin Houser 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:22ECUTyMir Brown 45 Yd Interception Return (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:53ECUAnthony Smith 3 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:03ECULondon Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1591, CLT Elo 1028 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU -24.9 (94% to win) — 3.6 points clear of CLT's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CLT | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.1 (#135) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#46) |
| -23 / +10 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.98 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →