Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | 0 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| ECU | 21 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 48 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ECU 1591
CLT 1028
Projected spread
ECU -24.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
97% to win
Market spread
ECU -28.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CLT
3.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
ECU · market 95%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1591, CLT Elo 1028) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU -24.9 (97% to win) — 3.6 points of value on CLT versus the market line of -28.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ECU (top)CLT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ECU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge ECU.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CLT rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CLT.
- CLT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ECU.
Drive-by-drive
CLT 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →ECU 7/14 scoring drives
ECUTD12 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
CLTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 19Q1
ECUTD9 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ECU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
ECU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. East Carolina?
Charlotte 22, East Carolina 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.