Charleston Southern vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Charleston Southern

03

Vanderbilt

▸0045

Final

FirstBank Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CHAR	0	0	0	3	3
VAN	14	14	7	10	45

CHARTeam statsVAN

135Total yards481

88Pass280

47Rush201

7First downs25

3-133rd down6-9

2Turnovers0

27:51Possession32:09

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:07CHARZach Gordon 38 Yd Field Goal 3–45
• Q4 7:14VANJamezell Lassiter 35 Yd Run (Mason Rohmiller Kick)0–45
• Q4 11:48VANBrock Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q3 5:47VANMakhilyn Young 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–35
• Q2 3:11VANSedrick Alexander 26 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–28
• Q2 10:19VANAJ Newberry 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:59VANJunior Sherrill 12 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–14
• Q1 10:13VANKayleb Barnett 9 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

VAN −38

Against the number

VAN covered

line VAN −38

What the numbers say

• CHAR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 4.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

VAN 100%50%CHAR 100%

Kickoff131 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

VAN (top)CHAR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VAN 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

VAN −38

Closing total

50.0

Model line

—

Actual result

CHAR 3 – 45 VAN

Leaders

Charleston Southern

• PassZolten Osborne 8/16, 54 YDS, 1 INT
• RushIsaiah Gordon 8 CAR, 28 YDS
• RecJamil Bishop 2 REC, 36 YDS

Vanderbilt

• PassDiego Pavia 20/25, 275 YDS, 3 TD
• RushSedrick Alexander 12 CAR, 83 YDS
• RecEli Stowers 4 REC, 86 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

115

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

VAN up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

VAN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6

Fourth downs

12 calls

CHAR gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.CHAR 6/7 · VAN 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Charleston Southern vs. Vanderbilt?

Charleston Southern 3, Vanderbilt 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CHAR

VAN

20%

Success rate

59%

-0.05

EPA / pass

0.65

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.47

15%

Early-down success

56%

25%

Pass success

57%

16%

Rush success

61%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

49%

Pass rate

53%

8.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.8

CHAR

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

VAN

4.8 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CHAR		VAN
135	Total yards	481
88	Passing yards	280
47	Rushing yards	201
7	First downs	25
3-13	3rd down	6-9
1-1	4th down	0-0
10/19	Comp/Att	21/28
4.6	Yards per pass	10.0
1.7	Yards per rush	6.5
2	Turnovers	0
5-54	Penalties	7-60
27:51	Possession	32:09

Fourth downs

12 calls

CHAR

6/7 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

VAN

2/3 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 0:59 CHAR punt on 4th & 1 at CHAR 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CHAR 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →VAN 7/12 scoring drives

VANTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

CHARPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

VANTD4 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1

CHARINT7 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1

VANTD14 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1

CHARPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 15Q2

VANPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 33Q2

CHARPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 20Q2

VANTD5 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2

CHARPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 35Q2

VANEND4 pl, 39 yds· own 16Q2

CHARPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

VANPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 27Q3

CHARPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q3

VANTD4 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q3

CHARFUM8 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3

VANUncateg4 pl, 26 yds· opp 45Q3

VANFG4 pl, 2 yds· opp 19Q0

CHARPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4

VANTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q4

CHARFG11 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q4

VANUncateg0 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:07CHARZach Gordon 38 Yd Field Goal 3–45
• Q4 7:14VANJamezell Lassiter 35 Yd Run (Mason Rohmiller Kick)0–45
• Q4 11:48VANBrock Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q3 5:47VANMakhilyn Young 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–35
• Q2 3:11VANSedrick Alexander 26 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–28
• Q2 10:19VANAJ Newberry 4 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–21
• Q1 6:59VANJunior Sherrill 12 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–14
• Q1 10:13VANKayleb Barnett 9 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →