Acrisure StadiumClosing line: PITT -21.5 · PITT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| PITT | 7 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
Team stats
CMUthis game · better side highlightedPITT
217
Total yards
464177
Passing yards
34040
Rushing yards
12413
First downs
226-17 · 35%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PITT 1470
CMU 1252
Projected spread
PITT -11.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
PITT
79% to win
Market spread
PITT -21.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CMU
10.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
79%
PITT · market 91%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1470, CMU Elo 1252) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT -11.1 (79% to win) — 10.4 points of value on CMU versus the market line of -21.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PITT (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PITT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. PITT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CMU.
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge PITT.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge CMU.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →PITT 4/11 scoring drives
PITTTD7 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
CMUPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 22Q1
PITTDOWNS14 pl, 61 yds· own 15Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PITT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
PITT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh?
Central Michigan 17, Pittsburgh 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.