Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Central Michigan1-0

Pittsburgh1-0

▸

Final

Acrisure Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CMU	0	10	7	0	17
PITT	7	17	7	14	45

CMUTeam statsPITT

217Total yards464

177Pass340

40Rush124

13First downs22

6-173rd down6-9

1Turnovers1

36:43Possession23:17

Q4 0:45PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 2 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–45
Q4 10:34PITTJuelz Goff 2 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–38
Q3 2:15PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 48 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–31
Q3 3:01CMUDeCorion Temple 6 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)17–24
Q2 0:09CMUJadyn Glasser 2 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)10–24
Q2 2:08PITTTrey Butkowski 43 Yd Field Goal 3–24
Q2 6:40PITTJosh Altsman 2 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)3–21
Q2 11:03PITTJustin Holmes 12 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)3–14
Q2 12:28CMUCade Graham 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 11:56PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 3 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

PITT −11.1

market PITT −21.5

Biggest swing

PITT +13%

Q4 12:38

Against the number

PITT covered

line PITT −21.5

PITT favored ↑50%CMU favored ↓

GridpexPITT 100%

Closing line

PITT −21.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

PITT −11.1

Actual result

CMU 17 – 45 PITT

Central Michigan

PassJoe Labas 11/14, 89 YDS, 1 TD
RushAngel Flores 9 CAR, 18 YDS
RecCamden Kruisenga 1 REC, 26 YDS

Pittsburgh

PassEli Holstein 21/28, 304 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
RushDesmond Reid 10 CAR, 46 YDS
RecRaphael Williams Jr. 5 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD

7.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PITT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

PITT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28 WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10 WTulane vs South Alabama37-17 WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6 WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Q4 12:38PITT +13%
Joe Labas pass complete to Brock Townsend for 8 yds to the CMU 47

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh?

Central Michigan 17, Pittsburgh 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.

CMU

PITT

26%

Success rate

59%

0.13

EPA / pass

0.49

-0.19

EPA / rush

0.21

21%

Early-down success

60%

31%

Pass success

64%

21%

Rush success

52%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

28%

46%

Pass rate

59%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.5

CMU

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

PITT

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

CMU		PITT
217	Total yards	464
177	Passing yards	340
40	Rushing yards	124
13	First downs	22
6-17	3rd down	6-9
3-5	4th down	0-1
20/27	Comp/Att	24/32
6.6	Yards per pass	10.6
1.0	Yards per rush	4.8
1	Turnovers	1
9-75	Penalties	6-63
36:43	Possession	23:17

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

PITT 1470

CMU 1252

Projected spread

PITT -11.1

incl. home edge

Model pick

PITT

78% to win

Market spread

PITT -21.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

CMU

10.4 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

78%

PITT · market 91%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1470, CMU Elo 1252 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -11.1 (78% to win) — 10.4 points clear of CMU's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

CMU2025 season · national rank shownPITT

332.2112th

Total yards / game

391.267th

5.587th

Yards / play

5.769th

167.1118th

Passing yards / game

273.520th

165.159th

Rushing yards / game

117.7116th

34.1%115th

3rd down %

33.3%120th

356.553rd

Yards allowed / game

330.531st

40.6%87th

3rd down % allowed

32.6%15th

+535th

Turnover margin

-281st

6.066th

Penalties / game

7.3115th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

CMU		PITT
-6.9 (#87)	CORE overall	+16.8 (#23)
-4 / +3	offense / defense	+4 / -13
1.94	points / drive	2.32
2.13	allowed / drive	1.96
31%	three-and-outs	23%
-13	pass over expected	+9

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

CMUTeam statsPITT

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap

CMUTeam statsPITT

How the model called it

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Pittsburgh?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups