Doyt L. Perry StadiumConference gameClosing line: BGSU -3 · CMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 0 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| BGSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Team stats
CMUthis game · better side highlightedBGSU
276
Total yards
31073
Passing yards
153203
Rushing yards
15714
First downs
145-12 · 42%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BGSU 1422
CMU 1110
Projected spread
BGSU -14.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
86% to win
Market spread
BGSU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
11.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
BGSU · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1422, CMU Elo 1110) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -14.9 (86% to win) — 11.9 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge CMU.
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge CMU.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge CMU.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 2/11 scoring drives
BGSUFG8 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
CMUPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 30Q1
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
CMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Bowling Green?
Central Michigan 27, Bowling Green 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.