Sat, Oct 18, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 0 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| BGSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1422, CMU Elo 1110) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -14.9 (86% to win) — 11.9 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of -3.
CMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Central Michigan 27, Bowling Green 6.
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Joe Labas pass complete to Collin Payne for 63 yds to the BGSU 16 for a 1ST down
Lucian Anderson III run for 24 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Kwiatkowski) to the CMU 17 for a 1ST down
Angel Flores run for 6 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →