Central Connecticut vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Central Connecticut

0013

UConn

▸0059

Final

Pratt & Whitney Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CENT	7	3	3	0	13
CONN	14	21	10	14	59

CENTTeam statsCONN

257Total yards638

129Pass388

128Rush250

13First downs26

5-163rd down12-16

0Turnovers0

32:32Possession27:28

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:38CONNMJ Flowers 16 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)13–59
• Q4 13:02CONNJackson Harper 19 Yd pass from Nick Evers (Chris Freeman Kick)13–52
• Q3 3:43CONNChris Freeman 29 Yd Field Goal 13–45
• Q3 7:02CENTJack Hennessey 29 Yd Field Goal 13–42
• Q3 12:33CONNVictor Rosa 20 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:34CONNReymello Murphy 3 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:20CENTJack Hennessey 20 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 8:21CONNJoe Fagnano 4 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–28
• Q2 11:24CONNCam Edwards 73 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:05CONNSkyler Bell 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:15CONNSkyler Bell 80 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:54CENTElijah Howard 2 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

CONN −28.5

Against the number

CONN covered

line CONN −28.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CENT aheadCONN ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CENT ahead, below = CONN ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CONN −28.5

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

CENT 13 – 59 CONN

Leaders

Central Connecticut

• PassBrady Olson 8/19, 118 YDS
• RushElijah Howard 11 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDavid Pardo 2 REC, 64 YDS

UConn

• PassJoe Fagnano 18/25, 260 YDS, 3 TD
• RushCam Edwards 6 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
• RecSkyler Bell 4 REC, 135 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CONN up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CONN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WMontana State vs Utah Tech63-20WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7

Fourth downs

15 calls

CENT gave up 2.4 points to the model on fourth down.CENT 6/9 · CONN 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Connecticut vs. UConn?

Central Connecticut 13, UConn 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CENT

CONN

36%

Success rate

51%

-0.04

EPA / pass

0.56

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.69

38%

Early-down success

46%

37%

Pass success

51%

36%

Rush success

52%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

24%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

41%

Pass rate

54%

6.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.2

CENT

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

CONN

5.2 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CENT		CONN
257	Total yards	638
129	Passing yards	388
128	Rushing yards	250
13	First downs	26
5-16	3rd down	12-16
0-1	4th down	0-1
9/23	Comp/Att	27/38
5.6	Yards per pass	10.2
3.2	Yards per rush	7.6
0	Turnovers	0
6-40	Penalties	8-78
32:32	Possession	27:28

Fourth downs

15 calls

CENT

6/9 with the model

−2.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

CONN

2/4 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 5:09 CENT punt on 4th & 2 at CONN 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.53 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CENT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CONN 9/13 scoring drives

CONNDOWNS4 pl, -24 yds· own 29Q1

CENTTD2 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q1

CONNTD6 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1

CENTPUNT8 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1

CONNTD10 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1

CENTDOWNS8 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1

CONNTD1 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

CENTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

CONNTD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2

CENTFG10 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q2

CONNPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q2

CENTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 22Q2

CONNTD7 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

CENTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

CENTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

CONNTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

CENTFG12 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q3

CONNFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 27Q3

CENTPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

CONNTD9 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3

CENTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

CONNMISS5 pl, 48 yds· own 35Q4

CENTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 20Q4

CONNTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

CENTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 37Q4

CONNEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:38CONNMJ Flowers 16 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)13–59
• Q4 13:02CONNJackson Harper 19 Yd pass from Nick Evers (Chris Freeman Kick)13–52
• Q3 3:43CONNChris Freeman 29 Yd Field Goal 13–45
• Q3 7:02CENTJack Hennessey 29 Yd Field Goal 13–42
• Q3 12:33CONNVictor Rosa 20 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:34CONNReymello Murphy 3 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:20CENTJack Hennessey 20 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 8:21CONNJoe Fagnano 4 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–28
• Q2 11:24CONNCam Edwards 73 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:05CONNSkyler Bell 12 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:15CONNSkyler Bell 80 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:54CENTElijah Howard 2 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →