Lane StadiumConference gameClosing line: VT -6 · VT covered
Fri, Oct 24, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 3 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 34 |
| VT | 10 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1419, CAL Elo 1408) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT -2.8 (58% to win) — 3.2 points of value on CAL versus the market line of -6.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
California 34, Virginia Tech 42.
Yes — the model's pick (VT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had VT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
End of OT.
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass intercepted by #20 C.Sidney at CAL00, Touchback
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