California vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsVT
- 2OT 0:00VTTakye Heath 7 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Kyron Drones Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–42
- OT 0:00VTKyron Drones 17 Yd Run (John Love Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00CALMason Mini 25 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)34–27
- Q4 2:34CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)27–27
- Q4 6:57VTKyron Drones 14 Yd Run (John Love Kick)20–27
- Q3 5:06VTTakye Heath 44 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:45VTJohn Love 52 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:43CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)20–10
- Q2 9:31CALChase Meyer 34 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 14:46CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–10
- Q1 2:18CALChase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 7:27VTJohn Love 46 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:04VTAyden Greene 27 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 24/39, 286 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 20 CAR, 71 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJacob De Jesus 8 REC, 86 YDS
- PassKyron Drones 9/18, 119 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcellous Hawkins Jr. 21 CAR, 167 YDS
- RecTakye Heath 4 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:43CAL +27%
Shotgun #1 K.Raphael rush middle for 1 yard gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:46CAL +20%
No Huddle #1 K.Raphael rush left for 1 yard gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:34CAL +17%
K. Raphael run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Meyer KICK)
- Q1 12:04VT +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones pass complete deep right to #0 A.Greene caught at CAL03, for 27 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- 2OT 0:00CAL +15%
PENALTY VT False Start (#76 A.Lynch) 5 yards from CAL14 to CAL19. NO PLAY
- Q4 6:57VT +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush left for 14 yards gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Virginia Tech?
California 34, Virginia Tech 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VT) was correct.
| CAL | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 476 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 119 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 357 |
| 19 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 9/18 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-60 | Penalties | 10-79 |
| 27:46 | Possession | 32:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:45 VT field goal on 4th & 3 at CAL 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00VTTakye Heath 7 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Kyron Drones Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–42
- OT 0:00VTKyron Drones 17 Yd Run (John Love Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00CALMason Mini 25 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)34–27
- Q4 2:34CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)27–27
- Q4 6:57VTKyron Drones 14 Yd Run (John Love Kick)20–27
- Q3 5:06VTTakye Heath 44 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:45VTJohn Love 52 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:43CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)20–10
- Q2 9:31CALChase Meyer 34 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 14:46CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–10
- Q1 2:18CALChase Meyer 38 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 7:27VTJohn Love 46 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:04VTAyden Greene 27 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1419, CAL Elo 1408 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -2.8 (59% to win) — 3.2 points clear of CAL's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CAL | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →