| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| STAN | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1246, CAL Elo 1420) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +4.6 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
STAN up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
California 10, Stanford 31.
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CAL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jay Green 49 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)
(01:05) Shotgun #1 K.Raphael rush left for 11 yards gain to the CAL17 fumbled by #1 K.Raphael at CAL14 forced by #0 J.Galvan recovered by STAN #29 D.Davis at CAL17 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:58 #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford) PENALTY CAL Personal Foul 2 yards from CAL03 to CAL01 #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford) PENALTY CAL Personal Foul 20 yards from CAL00 to CAL45 #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford) PENALTY CAL Personal Foul 15 yards from CAL00 to STAN50
(10:06) Shotgun #2 E.Brown pass complete deep right to #3 C.Williams caught at CAL04, for 34 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:01, 1ST DOWN #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #93 P.Warford)
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