California vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsORST
- Q4 0:20CALChase Meyer 23 Yd Field Goal 34–15
- Q4 8:16ORSTMaalik Murphy 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)31–15
- Q4 12:02CALBrandon High Jr. 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)31–9
- Q3 4:16ORSTAnthony Hankerson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–9
- Q3 11:37CALLandon Morris 4 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00CALAbram Murray 49 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:29ORSTCaleb Ojeda 53 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 7:56CALTrond Grizzell 32 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:23CALMason Mini 19 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 20/30, 234 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBrandon High Jr. 10 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrond Grizzell 5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMaalik Murphy 21/33, 244 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 15 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Walker 9 REC, 136 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:13CAL +7%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds to the ORST 38
- Q1 13:05ORST +6%
PENALTY OREGONST substitution infraction 5 yards to the CAL41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL
- Q3 11:37CAL +5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Landon Morris for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Oregon State?
California 34, Oregon State 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.
| CAL | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 313 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 122 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-39 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 30:08 | Possession | 29:52 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:10 CAL punt on 4th & 2 at ORST 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:20CALChase Meyer 23 Yd Field Goal 34–15
- Q4 8:16ORSTMaalik Murphy 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)31–15
- Q4 12:02CALBrandon High Jr. 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)31–9
- Q3 4:16ORSTAnthony Hankerson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–9
- Q3 11:37CALLandon Morris 4 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00CALAbram Murray 49 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:29ORSTCaleb Ojeda 53 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 7:56CALTrond Grizzell 32 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:23CALMason Mini 19 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1406, CAL Elo 1519 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +2.1 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCalifornia leads 40–37 · California has won 2 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| CAL | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →