BYU vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 14:02BYUCody Hagen 32 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)24–21
- Q3 2:42COLODre'lon Miller 19 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–21
- Q3 5:26BYUChase Roberts 4 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:46BYUChase Roberts 5 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:45BYUWill Ferrin 28 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:08COLODre'lon Miller 5 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:44COLOKaidon Salter 3 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BYU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and COLO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassBear Bachmeier 19/27, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBear Bachmeier 15 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecChase Roberts 5 REC, 49 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKaidon Salter 11/16, 119 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMicah Welch 11 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJoseph Williams 5 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:02BYU +34%
Cody Hagen run for 32 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q4 1:49BYU +33%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 30 yds
- Q3 2:42COLO +31%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q3 5:26BYU +29%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q4 0:38BYU +22%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 45
- Q4 1:34COLO +21%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 8 yds to the COLO 12
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Colorado?
BYU 24, Colorado 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| BYU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 291 |
| 179 | Passing yards | 119 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 27 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 11/16 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-34 | Penalties | 6-67 |
| 33:35 | Possession | 26:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:17 COLO punt on 4th & 1 at COLO 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:02BYUCody Hagen 32 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)24–21
- Q3 2:42COLODre'lon Miller 19 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–21
- Q3 5:26BYUChase Roberts 4 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:46BYUChase Roberts 5 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:45BYUWill Ferrin 28 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:08COLODre'lon Miller 5 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:44COLOKaidon Salter 3 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1617, BYU Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +1 (48% to win) — 5.5 points clear of COLO's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 8–5–1 · BYU has won 4 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| BYU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#101) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →