Buffalo vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsKENT
- Q4 1:03BUFVictor Snow 22 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)31–28
- Q4 2:38KENTDru DeShields 3 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)24–28
- Q3 2:58KENTTerik Mulder 50 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)24–21
- Q3 5:15BUFAl-Jay Henderson 38 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)24–14
- Q3 9:28BUFChance Morrow 21 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:00BUFJack Howes 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:12BUFNik McMillan 38 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)7–14
- Q2 2:33KENTCade Wolford 41 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:54KENTMaurice Stephens 31 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 28/40, 318 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 15 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNik McMillan 7 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDru DeShields 22/32, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGavin Garcia 18 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecCade Wolford 3 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:03BUF +82%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q4 2:38KENT +66%
Dru DeShields run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
- Q2 1:12BUF +23%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 38 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q2 2:33KENT +23%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 41 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
- Q4 2:26BUF +21%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah Gathings
- Q3 9:28BUF +21%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Kent State?
Buffalo 31, Kent State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
| BUF | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 423 |
| 318 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 144 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 8-20 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 28/40 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-42 | Penalties | 7-42 |
| 22:38 | Possession | 37:22 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:09 BUF punt on 4th & 1 at BUF 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03BUFVictor Snow 22 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)31–28
- Q4 2:38KENTDru DeShields 3 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)24–28
- Q3 2:58KENTTerik Mulder 50 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)24–21
- Q3 5:15BUFAl-Jay Henderson 38 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)24–14
- Q3 9:28BUFChance Morrow 21 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)17–14
- Q2 0:00BUFJack Howes 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:12BUFNik McMillan 38 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)7–14
- Q2 2:33KENTCade Wolford 41 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:54KENTMaurice Stephens 31 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 938, BUF Elo 1407 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +16.4 (15% to win) — 7.6 points clear of KENT's market line of +24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBuffalo leads 16–13 · Buffalo has won 3 straight · 45% have been one-possession games
| BUF | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.7 (#124) | CORE overall | -19.8 (#125) |
| -15 / +5 | offense / defense | -5 / +14 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.87 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →