| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
| KENT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENT Elo 938, BUF Elo 1407) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENT +16.4 (11% to win) — 7.6 points of value on KENT versus the market line of +24.
BUF up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Buffalo 31, Kent State 28.
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BUF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 43 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST down
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 50 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
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