Bowling Green vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsCIN
- Q4 1:55BGSUJackson Kleather 30 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q4 6:12CINStephen Rusnak 23 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q4 10:35BGSUMar'Kel Porter 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)17–31
- Q3 0:24CINBrendan Sorsby 9 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–31
- Q3 4:03BGSUJyrin Johnson 31 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)10–24
- Q3 12:58CINStephen Rusnak 40 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 0:23BGSUJackson Kleather 25 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:11CINJeff Caldwell 9 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:17CINCyrus Allen 2 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:23CINCyrus Allen 44 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrew Pyne 29/36, 274 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCameron Pettaway 13 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecJyrin Johnson 7 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendan Sorsby 17/24, 333 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBrendan Sorsby 7 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeff Caldwell 5 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:23CIN +17%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 44 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q2 13:17CIN +13%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q2 6:11CIN +7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q3 4:03BGSU +5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 31 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Cincinnati?
Bowling Green 20, Cincinnati 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| BGSU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 439 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 333 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-7 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/37 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 13.9 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 5-52 |
| 37:11 | Possession | 22:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:55 BGSU punt on 4th & 1 at BGSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55BGSUJackson Kleather 30 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q4 6:12CINStephen Rusnak 23 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q4 10:35BGSUMar'Kel Porter 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)17–31
- Q3 0:24CINBrendan Sorsby 9 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)10–31
- Q3 4:03BGSUJyrin Johnson 31 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)10–24
- Q3 12:58CINStephen Rusnak 40 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 0:23BGSUJackson Kleather 25 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:11CINJeff Caldwell 9 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:17CINCyrus Allen 2 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:23CINCyrus Allen 44 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1477, BGSU Elo 1461 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -3 (59% to win) — 19.0 points clear of BGSU's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BGSU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| -16 / +3 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →