Nippert StadiumClosing line: CIN -22 · BGSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
| CIN | 7 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 34 |
Team stats
BGSUthis game · better side highlightedCIN
372
Total yards
439274
Passing yards
33398
Rushing yards
10621
First downs
186-16 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1477
BGSU 1461
Projected spread
CIN -3
incl. home edge
Model pick
CIN
59% to win
Market spread
CIN -22
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
19.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
59%
CIN · market 89%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1477, BGSU Elo 1461) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN -3 (59% to win) — 19.0 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of -22.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)BGSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge CIN.
Drive-by-drive
BGSU 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 6/11 scoring drives
BGSUPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1
CINPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q1
BGSUMISS5 pl, 33 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CIN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
CIN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Cincinnati?
Bowling Green 20, Cincinnati 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CIN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.