Boise State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsUSU
- Q4 2:26BOISDylan Riley 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
- Q3 3:17BOISQuinton Brown 66 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q3 4:09USUTanner Rinker 37 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 0:12BOISColton Boomer 32 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 1:55USUMiles Davis 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–21
- Q1 4:05USUJaven Jacobs 56 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–14
- Q1 5:07BOISMatt Wagner 11 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:58BOISColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:29USUBryson Barnes 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 6.5
- USU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMax Cutforth 26/49, 341 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDylan Riley 25 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMatt Wagner 5 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Barnes 13/31, 184 YDS
- RushJaven Jacobs 5 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Garcia 2 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:01USU +85%
Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete deep left to #10 A.Garcia caught at BSU29, for 32 yards to the BSU29, out of bounds at BSU29, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:26BOIS +62%
#24 D.Riley rush right for 6 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN #14 M.Cutforth pass attempt failed
- Q4 1:39BOIS +40%
#24 D.Riley rush left for 3 yards gain to the USU30 (#9 T.Morris) PENALTY USU Offside (#0 E.Migao) 5 yards from USU33 to USU28. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:21USU +35%
Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU30 (#53 M.Notarainni; #15 M.Williams) PENALTY USU Holding (#72 G.Maile) 10 yards from USU25 to USU15. NO PLAY
- Q4 0:25BOIS +32%
Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush left for 16 yards gain to the USU45, out of bounds at USU45 PENALTY USU Holding (#72 G.Maile) 10 yards from USU29 to USU19. NO PLAY
- Q3 3:17BOIS +22%
Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete deep left to #25 Q.Brown caught at USU35, for 66 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #14 M.Cutforth pass attempt failed
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Utah State?
Boise State 25, Utah State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| BOIS | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 405 |
| 341 | Passing yards | 184 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 28 | First downs | 22 |
| 13-24 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 26/49 | Comp/Att | 13/32 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 11-91 |
| 36:58 | Possession | 23:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:29 BOIS punt on 4th & 14 at USU 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:26BOISDylan Riley 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
- Q3 3:17BOISQuinton Brown 66 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q3 4:09USUTanner Rinker 37 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 0:12BOISColton Boomer 32 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 1:55USUMiles Davis 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–21
- Q1 4:05USUJaven Jacobs 56 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–14
- Q1 5:07BOISMatt Wagner 11 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:58BOISColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:29USUBryson Barnes 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1455, BOIS Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU +4.2 (40% to win) — 2.7 points clear of BOIS's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 25–5 · Boise State has won 10 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#77) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →