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Boise State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Fri, Nov 28, 9:00 PM
Maverik StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 10 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 25 |
| USU | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USU 1455
BOIS 1621
Projected spread
USU +4.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
62% to win
Market spread
USU +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BOIS
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
38%
USU · market 45%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1455, BOIS Elo 1621) plus home-field advantage. That projects USU +4.2 (38% to win) — 2.7 points of value on BOIS versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USU (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BOIS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSU
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2042%
Success rate
41%1.28
Explosiveness
1.353.66
Pts / opportunity
4.4979%
Power success
71%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.2236%
Success rate allowed
43%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2517%
Havoc rate
13%19%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge USU.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USU.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. USU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 4/15 scoring drives
USUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BOISPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 22Q1
USUFUM1 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q1
BOISFG8 pl, 13 yds· opp 23Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1
BOISTD4 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1
USUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BOISPUNT4 pl, 30 yds· own 23Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q1
BOISDOWNS9 pl, 56 yds· own 30Q1
USUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 14Q2
BOISMISS11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q2
USUTD9 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2
BOISFG14 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2
USUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
BOISDOWNS8 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3
USUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 48Q3
BOISPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 16Q3
USUFG10 pl, 51 yds· own 29Q3
BOISTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
USUDOWNS7 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q3
BOISPUNT10 pl, 48 yds· own 14Q4
USUPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q4
BOISFUM4 pl, 25 yds· opp 47Q4
USUDOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 22Q4
BOISTD7 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q4
USUPUNT3 pl, -18 yds· own 25Q4
BOISDOWNS5 pl, 16 yds· opp 45Q4
USUEND2 pl, 42 yds· own 29Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
USU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Utah State?
Boise State 25, Utah State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.