Baylor vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsCIN
- Q4 4:26CINIsaiah Johnson 8 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–41
- Q4 6:13CINBrendan Sorsby 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–34
- Q4 13:34BAYSawyer Robertson 1 Yd Run (Michael Turner Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–27
- Q3 5:15CINStephen Rusnak 36 Yd Field Goal 12–27
- Q3 10:36BAYJosh Cameron 9 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–24
- Q2 0:16BAYMichael Trigg 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–24
- Q2 2:34CINCyrus Allen 6 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:42CINStephen Rusnak 46 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 1:22CINEvan Pryor 5 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:52CINTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassSawyer Robertson 18/26, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMichael Turner 14 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecJosh Cameron 4 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendan Sorsby 13/21, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrendan Sorsby 11 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCyrus Allen 3 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:52CIN +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 13:34BAY +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN…
- Q1 1:22CIN +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 12:56CIN +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN35 (#0 J.Marshall) PENALTY CIN Holding (#53 G.Gerhardt) 10 yards from CIN32 to CIN22. NO PLAY
- Q3 10:36BAY +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at CIN00, for 9 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declined…
- Q2 5:42CIN +6%
#99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Cincinnati?
Baylor 20, Cincinnati 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| BAY | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 266 | Total yards | 376 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 111 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 265 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 10-88 |
| 24:54 | Possession | 35:06 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26CINIsaiah Johnson 8 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–41
- Q4 6:13CINBrendan Sorsby 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–34
- Q4 13:34BAYSawyer Robertson 1 Yd Run (Michael Turner Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–27
- Q3 5:15CINStephen Rusnak 36 Yd Field Goal 12–27
- Q3 10:36BAYJosh Cameron 9 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–24
- Q2 0:16BAYMichael Trigg 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–24
- Q2 2:34CINCyrus Allen 6 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:42CINStephen Rusnak 46 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 1:22CINEvan Pryor 5 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:52CINTawee Walker 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1594, BAY Elo 1592 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -2.5 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BAY | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#54) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| +6 / +0 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 2.31 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →