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Baylor vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 8:00 PM
Nippert StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 20 |
| CIN | 14 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 41 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1594
BAY 1592
Projected spread
CIN -2.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
CIN
57% to win
Market spread
CIN -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
57%
CIN · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1594, BAY Elo 1592) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN -2.5 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)BAY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BAY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCIN
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2945%
Success rate
46%1.27
Explosiveness
1.313.69
Pts / opportunity
4.6077%
Power success
76%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2144%
Success rate allowed
45%1.16
Explosiveness allowed
1.1712%
Havoc rate
12%15%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. BAY pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge CIN.
- BAY pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge CIN.
Drive-by-drive
BAY 3/8 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 7/10 scoring drives
CINTD11 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
BAYPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 15Q1
CINTD10 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1
BAYPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
CINPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 37Q1
BAYDOWNS10 pl, 39 yds· own 17Q2
CINFG9 pl, 27 yds· own 45Q2
BAYFUM1 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
CINTD6 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q2
BAYTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
CINEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
BAYTD9 pl, 79 yds· own 20Q3
CINFG12 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q3
BAYTD12 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q3
CINTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
CINTD3 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q4
BAYDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 42Q4
CINEND6 pl, 23 yds· opp 42Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CIN up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
CIN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Cincinnati?
Baylor 20, Cincinnati 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CIN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.