Ball State vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsTOL
- Q4 3:43BALLIsaiah Thacker 15 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin PAT failed)9–38
- Q4 12:05TOLJunior Vandeross III 63 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:18TOLJunior Vandeross III 42 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:00TOLDylan Cunanan 46 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 1:53TOLChip Trayanum 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–21
- Q2 3:26BALLDC Pippin 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:51TOLRyder Treadway 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:46TOLTrayvon Rudolph 14 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TOL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BALL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.7 vs 3rd & 7.4
- BALL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassKiael Kelly 14/31, 189 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJalen Bonds 16 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecJalen Bonds 1 REC, 54 YDS
- PassTucker Gleason 15/24, 218 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 15 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 7 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Toledo?
Ball State 9, Toledo 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| BALL | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Total yards | 404 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-19 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/33 | Comp/Att | 15/27 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-32 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 37:04 | Possession | 22:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:21 TOL punt on 4th & 3 at BALL 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:43BALLIsaiah Thacker 15 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin PAT failed)9–38
- Q4 12:05TOLJunior Vandeross III 63 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:18TOLJunior Vandeross III 42 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:00TOLDylan Cunanan 46 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 1:53TOLChip Trayanum 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–21
- Q2 3:26BALLDC Pippin 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:51TOLRyder Treadway 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:46TOLTrayvon Rudolph 14 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1630, BALL Elo 1030 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -26.4 (95% to win) — 2.6 points clear of BALL's market line of -29. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 28–21–1 · Toledo has won 4 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| BALL | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.9 (#133) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#19) |
| -22 / +6 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 1.14 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →