| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| TOL | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TOL Elo 1630, BALL Elo 1030) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -26.4 (97% to win) — 2.6 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -29.
TOL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 9, Toledo 38.
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep left to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at BSU30, for 63 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05, 1ST DOWN #45 D.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #36 E.Duran, LS: #40 J.Roe)
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #22 J.Bonds caught at BSU30, for 54 yards to the TOLEDO21 (#23 T.McKinstry), 1ST DOWN
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #39 D.Hohler at TOLEDO13 #39 D.Hohler return 48 yards to the BSU39 (#85 K.Anthony; #84 T.Hoover)
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