Army vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 2:49ARMYParker Poloskey 4 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)27–24
- Q4 9:10UTSAJamel Hardy Jr. 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–24
- Q4 14:55UTSAPatrick Overmyer 8 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–17
- Q3 4:27ARMYDawson Jones 37 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:46ARMYJaydan Mayes 73 Yd Interception Return (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q2 2:59ARMYDawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:22ARMYNoah Short 81 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:15UTSAMichael Petro 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:43UTSAPatrick Overmyer 4 Yd pass from David Amador II (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCale Hellums 4/10, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNoah Short 14 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrady Anderson 1 REC, 32 YDS
- PassOwen McCown 27/40, 266 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 13 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecDevin McCuin 7 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:49ARMY +67%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #44 P.Poloskey caught at UTSA00, for 4 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:10UTSA +39%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #13 J.Hardy caught at ARMY00, for 7 yards to the ARMY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:55UTSA +30%
Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at ARMY00, for 8 yards to the ARMY00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:12ARMY +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UTSA31 (#15 T.Milton), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:40UTSA +25%
Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #9 P.Overmyer caught at UTSA30, for 11 yards to the UTSA36 (#14 G.Shields), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:46ARMY +24%
Jaydan Mayes 73 Yd Interception Return (Dawson Jones Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. UTSA?
Army 27, UTSA 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 386 |
| 70 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 233 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 16 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 5/11 | Comp/Att | 28/42 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 33:07 | Possession | 26:53 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:49ARMYParker Poloskey 4 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)27–24
- Q4 9:10UTSAJamel Hardy Jr. 7 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–24
- Q4 14:55UTSAPatrick Overmyer 8 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–17
- Q3 4:27ARMYDawson Jones 37 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:46ARMYJaydan Mayes 73 Yd Interception Return (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q2 2:59ARMYDawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:22ARMYNoah Short 81 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:15UTSAMichael Petro 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:43UTSAPatrick Overmyer 4 Yd pass from David Amador II (Michael Petro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1585, ARMY Elo 1504 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -5.6 (66% to win) — 2.9 points clear of ARMY's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#95 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #51 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| ARMY | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#58) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -34 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →