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Army vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 29, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| UTSA | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UTSA 1585
ARMY 1504
Projected spread
UTSA -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
UTSA
66% to win
Market spread
UTSA -8.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ARMY
2.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
UTSA · market 73%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1585, ARMY Elo 1504) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -5.6 (66% to win) — 2.9 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -8.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UTSA (top)ARMY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UTSA 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ARMY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUTSA
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.2342%
Success rate
45%1.16
Explosiveness
1.343.70
Pts / opportunity
4.2378%
Power success
73%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1844%
Success rate allowed
40%1.14
Explosiveness allowed
1.3813%
Havoc rate
19%16%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ARMY pass offense (0.47 PPA) vs. UTSA pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge ARMY.
- UTSA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. ARMY rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. ARMY pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge UTSA.
Drive-by-drive
ARMY 4/9 scoring drives← own end zone →UTSA 5/10 scoring drives
ARMYPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
UTSATD9 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
ARMYDOWNS6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
UTSAFG11 pl, 31 yds· opp 46Q1
ARMYTD2 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q2
UTSAPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2
ARMYFG14 pl, 87 yds· own 3Q2
UTSATD6 pl, 29 yds· own 35Q2
UTSADOWNS9 pl, 38 yds· opp 35Q2
UTSADOWNS6 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3
ARMYFG14 pl, 37 yds· own 43Q3
UTSAPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3
ARMYPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q3
UTSATD5 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3
ARMYPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4
UTSATD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
ARMYTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
UTSADOWNS5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
ARMYEND3 pl, 7 yds· opp 42Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
ARMY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. UTSA?
Army 27, UTSA 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UTSA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.