Army
6-5·American Athletic· Elo 1589
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| NAVY | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NAVY Elo 1575, ARMY Elo 1589) on a neutral field. That projects NAVY -2.7 (58% to win) — 3.3 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -6.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ARMY ahead, below = NAVY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ARMY up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 16, Navy 17.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:22) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 18 yards loss to the Army45 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at Army34 recovered by Army #99 J.Bousum at Army45, End Of Play
End of 2nd quarter.
(06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
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