Army vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 6:37NAVYEli Heidenreich 8 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)16–17
- Q3 2:59NAVYNathan Kirkwood 21 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 9:39ARMYDawson Jones 48 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 0:03ARMYDawson Jones 45 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 3:45ARMYDawson Jones 20 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 14:55ARMYCale Hellums 2 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16NAVYBlake Horvath 5 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCale Hellums 5/10, 82 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCale Hellums 25 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Short 3 REC, 51 YDS
- PassBlake Horvath 7/14, 82 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBlake Horvath 34 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:37NAVY +48%
Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 3:52NAVY +27%
Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 6 yards gain to the Navy46 (#51 A.Thomas)
- Q4 5:54ARMY +21%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #15 N.Short thrown to Army40 PENALTY Army Holding (#27 S.Howard) 10 yards from Army25 to Army15. NO PLAY
- Q2 14:55ARMY +19%
No Huddle #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 7:16NAVY +18%
#11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 9:39ARMY +15%
#95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Navy?
Army 16, Navy 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| ARMY | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Total yards | 0 |
| 0 | Passing yards | 0 |
| 0 | Rushing yards | 0 |
| 11 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 11-18 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 0/0 | Comp/Att | 0/0 |
| .0 | Yards per pass | .0 |
| .0 | Yards per rush | .0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 25:25 | Possession | 34:35 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:59 NAVY field goal on 4th & 3 at ARMY 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:37NAVYEli Heidenreich 8 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)16–17
- Q3 2:59NAVYNathan Kirkwood 21 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 9:39ARMYDawson Jones 48 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 0:03ARMYDawson Jones 45 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 3:45ARMYDawson Jones 20 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 14:55ARMYCale Hellums 2 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:16NAVYBlake Horvath 5 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1525, ARMY Elo 1514 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects NAVY -0.4 (52% to win) — 5.1 points clear of ARMY's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 63–55–7 · Navy has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#43) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -34 | pass over expected | -20 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →