| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| ULM | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (ULM Elo 1137, ARST Elo 1244) plus home-field advantage. That projects ULM +1.9 (44% to win) — 3.4 points of value on ARST versus the market line of -1.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ARST ahead, below = ULM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge ULM.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ULM up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe?
Arkansas State 16, UL Monroe 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ARST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.