Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsULM
- Q4 5:36ULMZach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)16–28
- Q4 12:09ARSTClune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 5:44ARSTClune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q3 9:57ULMBraylon McReynolds 18 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:46ULMJake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)10–14
- Q2 6:28ULMJulian Nixon 8 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:35ARSTClune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:34ARSTBrandon Greil 32 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 30/47, 285 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDevin Spencer 7 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecChauncy Cobb 8 REC, 126 YDS
- PassAidan Armenta 17/26, 185 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushZach Palmer-Smith 8 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJake Godfrey 2 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 15:00ARST +33%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 6 yds to the ULM 31 UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive holding (Rico Powers Jr.) to the ULM 21
- Q4 5:36ULM +25%
Zach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)
- Q3 9:57ULM +22%
Braylon McReynolds run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)
- Q4 12:09ARST +15%
Clune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 5:44ARST +11%
Clune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 5:03ULM +7%
UL Monroe Penalty, false start (Jay Mickle) to the ULM 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe?
Arkansas State 16, UL Monroe 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 384 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 185 |
| 12 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 5-7 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 30/47 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 0.4 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-18 | Penalties | 9-67 |
| 29:39 | Possession | 30:21 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:36ULMZach Palmer-Smith 2 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)16–28
- Q4 12:09ARSTClune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 5:44ARSTClune Van Andel 43 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q3 9:57ULMBraylon McReynolds 18 Yd Run (Luke Stagg Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:46ULMJake Godfrey 37 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)10–14
- Q2 6:28ULMJulian Nixon 8 Yd pass from Aidan Armenta (Luke Stagg Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:35ARSTClune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:34ARSTBrandon Greil 32 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1137, ARST Elo 1244 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +1.9 (46% to win) — 3.4 points clear of ARST's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas State leads 26–9 · 43% have been one-possession games
| ARST | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#108) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | -8 / +7 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →