War Memorial Stadium (AR)Neutral siteClosing line: ARK -24 · ARK covered
Sat, Sep 6, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| ARK | 28 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 56 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARK Elo 1574, ARST Elo 1344) on a neutral field. That projects ARK -9.2 (75% to win) — 14.8 points of value on ARST versus the market line of -24.
ARK up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas State 14, Arkansas 56.
Yes — the model's pick (ARK) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARK pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Taylen Green 64 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARK 1
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ARK 1
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