Arkansas State vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsARK
- Q4 6:16ARKKJ Jackson 6 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–56
- Q3 3:46ARKO'Mega Blake 14 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–49
- Q3 11:20ARKRohan Jones 33 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–42
- Q2 0:53ARKJalen Brown 8 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–35
- Q2 3:44ARSTCameron Ambrose 2 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–28
- Q1 5:05ARKBraylen Russell 7 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–28
- Q1 8:59ARKTaylen Green 64 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–21
- Q1 9:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:03ARKRaylen Sharpe 37 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:21ARKMike Washington Jr. 53 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassJaylen Raynor 21/33, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaylen Raynor 15 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecChauncy Cobb 4 REC, 50 YDS
- PassTaylen Green 17/26, 239 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushTaylen Green 9 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRohan Jones 2 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:53ARK +9%
Jalen Brown 8 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)
- Q2 3:44ARST +8%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Arkansas?
Arkansas State 14, Arkansas 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARK) was correct.
| ARST | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 630 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 309 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 321 |
| 23 | First downs | 29 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 5-6 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 11.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-56 | Penalties | 8-74 |
| 36:57 | Possession | 23:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:19 ARST punt on 4th & 8 at ARK 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:16ARKKJ Jackson 6 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–56
- Q3 3:46ARKO'Mega Blake 14 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–49
- Q3 11:20ARKRohan Jones 33 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–42
- Q2 0:53ARKJalen Brown 8 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–35
- Q2 3:44ARSTCameron Ambrose 2 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–28
- Q1 5:05ARKBraylen Russell 7 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–28
- Q1 8:59ARKTaylen Green 64 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–21
- Q1 9:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:03ARKRaylen Sharpe 37 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:21ARKMike Washington Jr. 53 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1574, ARST Elo 1344 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARK -9.2 (74% to win) — 14.8 points clear of ARST's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARST | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#37) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | +20 / +9 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 3.48 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →