Arkansas State vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsAPP
- Q4 0:42ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)30–29
- Q4 1:34APPDominic De Freitas 29 Yd Field Goal 23–29
- Q4 11:37APPDominic De Freitas 48 Yd Field Goal 23–26
- Q3 2:38ARSTCorey Rucker 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)23–23
- Q3 7:34APPSam Mbake 16 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)16–23
- Q2 0:03APPDominic De Freitas 45 Yd Field Goal 16–16
- Q2 1:16ARSTTyler Fortenberry 13 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)16–13
- Q2 1:33ARSTCorey Rucker 8 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel PAT failed)9–13
- Q2 9:44APPDalton Stroman 37 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)3–13
- Q2 13:47APPDominic De Freitas 38 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 2:36ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:15APPDominic De Freitas 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 32/47, 363 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenyon Clay 14 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 5 REC, 117 YDS
- PassJJ Kohl 26/39, 271 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaquari Lewis 22 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecDavid Larkins 6 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:42ARST +93%
Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 1 yard gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:04APP +80%
#90 D.De Freitas field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD
- Q4 1:41APP +33%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #87 D.Galloway caught at ASU00, for 6 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty PENALTY APP Illegal…
- Q3 2:38ARST +30%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #7 C.Rucker caught at APP03, for 6 yards to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:34APP +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #3 S.Mbake caught at ASU00, for 16 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:16ARST +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short middle to #19 T.Fortenberry caught at APP01, for 13 yards to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. App State?
Arkansas State 30, App State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 453 |
| 363 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 182 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 32/47 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 6-28 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:25 ARST punt on 4th & 1 at APP 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:42ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)30–29
- Q4 1:34APPDominic De Freitas 29 Yd Field Goal 23–29
- Q4 11:37APPDominic De Freitas 48 Yd Field Goal 23–26
- Q3 2:38ARSTCorey Rucker 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)23–23
- Q3 7:34APPSam Mbake 16 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)16–23
- Q2 0:03APPDominic De Freitas 45 Yd Field Goal 16–16
- Q2 1:16ARSTTyler Fortenberry 13 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)16–13
- Q2 1:33ARSTCorey Rucker 8 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel PAT failed)9–13
- Q2 9:44APPDalton Stroman 37 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)3–13
- Q2 13:47APPDominic De Freitas 38 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 2:36ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:15APPDominic De Freitas 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1252, ARST Elo 1302 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -0.4 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →