Kidd Brewer StadiumConference gameClosing line: ARST +-0.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 3 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 30 |
| APP | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 29 |
Team stats
ARSTthis game · better side highlightedAPP
448
Total yards
453363
Passing yards
27185
Rushing yards
18223
First downs
237-17 · 41%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
APP 1252
ARST 1302
Projected spread
APP -0.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
APP
51% to win
Market spread
APP +0.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
APP · market 49%
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1252, ARST Elo 1302) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP -0.4 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
APP (top)ARST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: APP 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge APP.
Drive-by-drive
ARST 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →APP 7/14 scoring drives
APPFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
APPPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 9Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
APP win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. App State?
Arkansas State 30, App State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had APP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.