Jones AT&T StadiumClosing line: TTU -54.5 · TTU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TTU | 23 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 67 |
Team stats
ARKAthis game · better side highlightedTTU
175
Total yards
610122
Passing yards
31453
Rushing yards
29611
First downs
334-15 · 27%
Third down
5-8 · 63%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TTU (top)ARKA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TTU 100%
Drive-by-drive
ARKA 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TTU 11/12 scoring drives
ARKAPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
TTUTD4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
ARKAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TTU up 61 entering the 4th quarter. Across 49 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TTU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Texas Tech?
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7, Texas Tech 67.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.