Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

07

Texas Tech

▸0067

Final

Jones AT&T Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ARKA	0	0	0	7	7
TTU	23	24	14	6	67

ARKATeam statsTTU

175Total yards608

122Pass314

53Rush294

11First downs33

4-153rd down5-8

1Turnovers0

32:38Possession20:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:20TTUBryson Jones 13 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Upton Bellenfant PAT failed)7–67
• Q4 6:16ARKAEllis Stewart 7 Yd pass from Christian Peters (Trey Glymph Kick)7–61
• Q3 3:00TTULeyton Stone 9 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)0–61
• Q3 6:28TTUWill Hammond 64 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–54
• Q2 1:21TTUCameron Dickey 2 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–47
• Q2 4:49TTUStone Harrington 31 Yd Field Goal 0–40
• Q2 8:56TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–37
• Q2 13:58TTUCoy Eakin 41 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–30
• Q1 2:15TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 9 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–23
• Q1 4:47TTUUpton Bellenfant 29 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 10:12TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 21 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:44TTUReggie Virgil 9 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TTU −54.5

Against the number

TTU covered

line TTU −54.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TTU 100%50%ARKA 100%

Kickoff138 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TTU (top)ARKA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TTU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TTU −54.5

Closing total

63.0

Model line

—

Actual result

ARKA 7 – 67 TTU

Leaders

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

• PassChristian Peters 17/33, 122 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushZa'Marion Webber 15 CAR, 43 YDS
• RecKareem Burke 3 REC, 32 YDS

Texas Tech

• PassBehren Morton 16/20, 201 YDS, 4 TD
• RushCameron Dickey 13 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
• RecReggie Virgil 4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

13.1sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.61

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TTU up 61 entering the 4th quarter. Across 49 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TTU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3WUNLV vs Bryant74-14WOregon vs Portland State81-7WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3WLindenwood vs St. Thomas (MN)64-0

Fourth downs

11 calls

ARKA gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.ARKA 8/9 · TTU 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Texas Tech?

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7, Texas Tech 67.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ARKA

TTU

28%

Success rate

73%

0.03

EPA / pass

0.85

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.69

28%

Early-down success

70%

32%

Pass success

72%

22%

Rush success

73%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

27%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

62%

Pass rate

52%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

ARKA

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

TTU

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ARKA		TTU
175	Total yards	608
122	Passing yards	314
53	Rushing yards	294
11	First downs	33
4-15	3rd down	5-8
1-2	4th down	1-1
17/33	Comp/Att	25/32
3.7	Yards per pass	9.8
2.0	Yards per rush	10.1
1	Turnovers	0
4-31	Penalties	7-60
32:38	Possession	20:22

Fourth downs

11 calls

ARKA

8/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

TTU

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 4:47 ARKA punt on 4th & 2 at ARKA 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ARKA 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TTU 11/12 scoring drives

ARKAPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

TTUTD4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

TTUTD1 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q1

ARKAPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

TTUFG8 pl, 61 yds· own 28Q1

ARKAINT2 pl, 10 yds· own 22Q1

TTUTD6 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q1

ARKAPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1

TTUTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

ARKAPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

TTUTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

ARKADOWNS7 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q2

TTUFG7 pl, 43 yds· own 44Q2

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

TTUTD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2

ARKAEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

TTUTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

ARKAPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

TTUTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

ARKATD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

TTUTD7 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4

ARKAMISS10 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q4

TTUEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:20TTUBryson Jones 13 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Upton Bellenfant PAT failed)7–67
• Q4 6:16ARKAEllis Stewart 7 Yd pass from Christian Peters (Trey Glymph Kick)7–61
• Q3 3:00TTULeyton Stone 9 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)0–61
• Q3 6:28TTUWill Hammond 64 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–54
• Q2 1:21TTUCameron Dickey 2 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–47
• Q2 4:49TTUStone Harrington 31 Yd Field Goal 0–40
• Q2 8:56TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–37
• Q2 13:58TTUCoy Eakin 41 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–30
• Q1 2:15TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 9 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–23
• Q1 4:47TTUUpton Bellenfant 29 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q1 10:12TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 21 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:44TTUReggie Virgil 9 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →