| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| ISU | 8 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 39 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ISU Elo 1608, ARIZ Elo 1469) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -8 (72% to win) — 4.0 points of value on ISU versus the market line of -4.
ISU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona 14, Iowa State 39.
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ISU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for 15 yds to the ARIZ 19
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 10 yds to the ISU 10
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