Arizona vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsISU
- Q4 0:43ISUChase Smith 34 Yd Field Goal 14–39
- Q3 2:46ARIZTre Spivey 1 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–36
- Q3 8:08ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–36
- Q3 11:30ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–29
- Q2 0:22ARIZKris Hutson 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–22
- Q2 2:52ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)0–22
- Q2 12:41ISUCarson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)0–15
- Q1 5:56ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Gabe Burkle Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
- PassNoah Fifita 32/48, 253 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushIsmail Mahdi 13 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecKris Hutson 6 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRocco Becht 14/20, 243 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 19 CAR, 63 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChase Sowell 4 REC, 146 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:48ISU +31%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the ISU 45
- Q3 8:49ARIZ +29%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 46
- Q1 5:56ISU +21%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (G. Burkle Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 12:41ISU +20%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
- Q3 2:46ARIZ +19%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q2 2:52ISU +17%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Iowa State?
Arizona 14, Iowa State 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| ARIZ | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total yards | 399 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 111 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 32/48 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 13.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 28:55 | Possession | 31:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:24 ISU punt on 4th & 2 at ARIZ 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43ISUChase Smith 34 Yd Field Goal 14–39
- Q3 2:46ARIZTre Spivey 1 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–36
- Q3 8:08ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–36
- Q3 11:30ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–29
- Q2 0:22ARIZKris Hutson 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–22
- Q2 2:52ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)0–22
- Q2 12:41ISUCarson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)0–15
- Q1 5:56ISURocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Gabe Burkle Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1608, ARIZ Elo 1469 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -8 (71% to win) — 4.0 points clear of ISU's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARIZ | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#33) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#51) |
| +5 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →