Arizona vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsHOU
- Q4 0:01HOUEthan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 4:52ARIZKedrick Reescano 2 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)28–28
- Q4 15:00ARIZTre Spivey 3 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)21–28
- Q3 6:02HOUAmare Thomas 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:20HOUTanner Koziol 15 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:57HOUConner Weigman 10 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:24ARIZLuke Wysong 13 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:11HOUAmare Thomas 52 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:53ARIZTre Spivey 70 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNoah Fifita 24/26, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 6 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecTre Spivey 1 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConner Weigman 15/23, 164 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDean Connors 20 CAR, 100 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 4 REC, 69 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:01HOU +61%
Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 4:52ARIZ +49%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q2 5:57HOU +22%
Conner Weigman run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 0:20HOU +22%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q1 6:24ARIZ +19%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q1 12:11HOU +18%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 52 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Houston?
Arizona 28, Houston 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| ARIZ | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 381 | Total yards | 396 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/26 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-80 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 30:28 | Possession | 29:32 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:09 ARIZ punt on 4th & 2 at ARIZ 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:01HOUEthan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 4:52ARIZKedrick Reescano 2 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)28–28
- Q4 15:00ARIZTre Spivey 3 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)21–28
- Q3 6:02HOUAmare Thomas 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:20HOUTanner Koziol 15 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:57HOUConner Weigman 10 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:24ARIZLuke Wysong 13 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:11HOUAmare Thomas 52 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:53ARIZTre Spivey 70 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1477, ARIZ Elo 1473 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -2.6 (58% to win) — 4.6 points clear of HOU's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARIZ | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#33) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| +5 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →