Arizona vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 18, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| HOU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1477, ARIZ Elo 1473) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -2.6 (58% to win) — 4.6 points of value on HOU versus the market line of +2.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HOU · 14 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- HOU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. ARIZ pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge HOU.
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. ARIZ rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
- ARIZ rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge ARIZ.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HOU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Houston?
Arizona 28, Houston 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
Called it — I had HOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.