Alcorn State vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Alcorn State

00

Mississippi State2-0

▸0063

Final

Davis Wade Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ALCO	0	0	0	0	0
MSST	28	14	7	14	63

ALCOTeam statsMSST

161Total yards514

93Pass232

68Rush282

9First downs22

3-123rd down4-6

3Turnovers1

26:49Possession21:44

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:30MSSTSeth Davis 23 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)0–63
• Q4 9:55MSSTLuke Kromenhoek 3 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)0–56
• Q3 5:53MSSTXavier Gayten 25 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–49
• Q2 3:50MSSTFluff Bothwell 25 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–42
• Q2 7:20MSSTAnthony Evans III 22 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:12MSSTBlake Shapen 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:02MSSTBrenen Thompson 42 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:15MSSTFluff Bothwell 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:43MSSTJordan Mosley 75 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MSST −42.5

Against the number

MSST covered

line MSST −42.5

What the numbers say

• ALCO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MSST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MSST 100%50%ALCO 100%

Kickoff129 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MSST (top)ALCO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MSST −42.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ALCO 0 – 63 MSST

Leaders

Alcorn State

• PassJaylon Tolbert 11/18, 80 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJacorian Sewell 8 CAR, 21 YDS
• RecOmarion Blakes 3 REC, 31 YDS

Mississippi State

• PassBlake Shapen 10/14, 173 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushFluff Bothwell 12 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJordan Mosley 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

33sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

109

Points / snap

0.58

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MSST up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MSST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WPenn State vs Delaware63-7WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WDrake vs South Dakota State70-7WPenn State vs Massachusetts63-0WSouthern Illinois vs Western Illinois63-0

Fourth downs

12 calls

ALCO gave up 1.4 points to the model on fourth down.ALCO 7/8 · MSST 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Alcorn State vs. Mississippi State?

Alcorn State 0, Mississippi State 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ALCO

MSST

33%

Success rate

65%

0.04

EPA / pass

0.69

-0.24

EPA / rush

0.73

35%

Early-down success

65%

36%

Pass success

50%

30%

Rush success

73%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

23%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

42%

Pass rate

35%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

ALCO

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

MSST

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ALCO		MSST
161	Total yards	514
93	Passing yards	232
68	Rushing yards	282
9	First downs	22
3-12	3rd down	4-6
0-0	4th down	2-2
13/21	Comp/Att	13/18
4.4	Yards per pass	12.9
2.5	Yards per rush	7.8
3	Turnovers	1
9-70	Penalties	10-74
26:49	Possession	21:44

Fourth downs

12 calls

ALCO

7/8 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

MSST

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 0:38 ALCO punt on 4th & 1 at ALCO 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ALCO 0/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 9/13 scoring drives

MSSTTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

ALCOPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q1

MSSTTD6 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1

ALCOINT2 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

MSSTTD2 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 26Q1

MSSTTD3 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1

ALCOMISS12 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q1

MSSTINT10 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q2

ALCOFUM1 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q2

MSSTTD5 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q2

ALCOPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q2

MSSTTD7 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q2

ALCOPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 21Q2

MSSTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q2

ALCOPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q3

MSSTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 17Q3

ALCOFUM1 pl, 8 yds· own 28Q3

MSSTTD5 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

ALCOPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

MSSTTD1 pl, 3 yds· opp 3Q4

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

MSSTTD7 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q4

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q4

MSSTEND1 pl, 17 yds· own 38Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:30MSSTSeth Davis 23 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)0–63
• Q4 9:55MSSTLuke Kromenhoek 3 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)0–56
• Q3 5:53MSSTXavier Gayten 25 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–49
• Q2 3:50MSSTFluff Bothwell 25 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–42
• Q2 7:20MSSTAnthony Evans III 22 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:12MSSTBlake Shapen 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:02MSSTBrenen Thompson 42 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–21
• Q1 9:15MSSTFluff Bothwell 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:43MSSTJordan Mosley 75 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →