Davis Wade Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MSST | 28 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 63 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)ALCO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 100%
Drive-by-drive
ALCO 0/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 9/13 scoring drives
MSSTTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ALCOPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q1
MSSTTD6 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSST up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MSST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Alcorn State vs. Mississippi State?
Alcorn State 0, Mississippi State 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MSST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.