Alabama
11-3·SEC· Elo 1930
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| IU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2191, ALA Elo 1930) on a neutral field. That projects IU -10.4 (78% to win) — 2.9 points of value on IU versus the market line of -7.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALA ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Alabama 3, Indiana 38.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:25) Shotgun #10 A.Mack pass complete short left to #2 R.Williams caught at ALA35, for 26 yards to the IND32 (#0 H.Wheeler), 1ST DOWN
(12:03) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep right to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at ALA33, for 38 yards to the ALA23 (#7 D.Jones), 1ST DOWN
(01:22) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short left to #37 R.Nowakowski caught at IND31, for 31 yards to the ALA42 (#2 Z.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →