Alabama vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsIU
- Q4 10:33IURoman Hemby 18 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–38
- Q4 14:21IUKaelon Black 25 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–31
- Q3 2:44ALAConor Talty 28 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q3 7:46IUElijah Sarratt 24 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:17IUOmar Cooper Jr. 1 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:49IUCharlie Becker 21 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–10
- Q2 14:57IUNico Radicic 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALA ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassAustin Mack 11/16, 103 YDS
- RushTy Simpson 3 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecGermie Bernard 4 REC, 60 YDS
- PassFernando Mendoza 14/16, 192 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKaelon Black 15 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCharlie Becker 2 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Indiana?
Alabama 3, Indiana 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| ALA | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 193 | Total yards | 407 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 192 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 215 |
| 11 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/33 | Comp/Att | 14/16 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 25:39 | Possession | 34:21 |
- Q4 10:33IURoman Hemby 18 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–38
- Q4 14:21IUKaelon Black 25 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)3–31
- Q3 2:44ALAConor Talty 28 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q3 7:46IUElijah Sarratt 24 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:17IUOmar Cooper Jr. 1 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:49IUCharlie Becker 21 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)0–10
- Q2 14:57IUNico Radicic 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2191, ALA Elo 1930 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects IU -10.4 (76% to win) — 2.9 points clear of IU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#127 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #29 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ALA | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →