| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NEB | 9 | 24 | 21 | 14 | 68 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1522, AKR Elo 1235) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB -13.9 (85% to win) — 19.6 points of value on AKR versus the market line of -33.5.
NEB up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 58 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Akron 0, Nebraska 68.
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NEB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the AKR 2 Emmett Johnson fumbled, recovered by AKR Cyrus Durham
Emmett Johnson run for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the AKR 1
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