Akron vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsNEB
- Q4 7:31NEBTJ Lateef 8 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–68
- Q4 13:01NEBMekhi Nelson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–61
- Q3 2:37NEBKwinten Ives 28 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–54
- Q3 5:58NEBDane Key 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–47
- Q3 10:49NEBEmmett Johnson 6 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–40
- Q2 0:46NEBLuke Lindenmeyer 10 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–33
- Q2 2:08NEBQuinn Clark 37 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–26
- Q2 8:17NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–19
- Q2 13:56NEBKyle Cunanan 35 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q1 4:44NEBKade Pietrzak Safety 0–9
- Q1 12:17NEBEmmett Johnson 47 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassBen Finley 7/21, 54 YDS
- RushSean Patrick 12 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecMarcel Williams 2 REC, 28 YDS
- PassDylan Raiola 24/31, 364 YDS, 4 TD
- RushEmmett Johnson 14 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJacory Barney Jr. 7 REC, 132 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 58 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Nebraska?
Akron 0, Nebraska 68.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| AKR | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | Total yards | 728 |
| 62 | Passing yards | 494 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 234 |
| 13 | First downs | 31 |
| 1-14 | 3rd down | 8-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 9/23 | Comp/Att | 32/40 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 12.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 6-71 |
| 29:50 | Possession | 30:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:46 AKR punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:31NEBTJ Lateef 8 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–68
- Q4 13:01NEBMekhi Nelson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–61
- Q3 2:37NEBKwinten Ives 28 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–54
- Q3 5:58NEBDane Key 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–47
- Q3 10:49NEBEmmett Johnson 6 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–40
- Q2 0:46NEBLuke Lindenmeyer 10 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–33
- Q2 2:08NEBQuinn Clark 37 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–26
- Q2 8:17NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–19
- Q2 13:56NEBKyle Cunanan 35 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q1 4:44NEBKade Pietrzak Safety 0–9
- Q1 12:17NEBEmmett Johnson 47 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1522, AKR Elo 1235 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -13.9 (82% to win) — 19.6 points clear of AKR's market line of -33.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AKR | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →