| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 8 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| BALL | 14 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BALL Elo 1028, AKR Elo 1018) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL -2.8 (58% to win) — 3.8 points of value on BALL versus the market line of +1.
BALL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Akron 28, Ball State 42.
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BALL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Qua Ashley run for 69 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
Kiael Kelly run for 33 yds to the AKR 26 for a 1ST down
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
