Akron vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsBALL
- Q4 5:34BALLTJ Horton 90 Yd Kickoff Return (Carson Holmer Kick)28–42
- Q4 5:47AKRMatthew Schramm 19 Yd Field Goal 28–35
- Q4 10:43BALLKiael Kelly 1 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)25–35
- Q3 0:24AKRIsrael Polk 4 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)25–28
- Q3 5:52BALLKoby Gross 29 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)18–28
- Q3 7:28AKRMatthew Schramm 29 Yd Field Goal 18–21
- Q3 9:54BALLQua Ashley 69 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)15–21
- Q2 1:26AKRKyan Mason 37 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)15–14
- Q1 0:45BALLKiael Kelly 26 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)8–14
- Q1 6:13BALLKiael Kelly 3 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)8–7
- Q1 11:42AKRIsrael Polk 19 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Johnson Jr. Pass to Max Whisner for Two-Point Conversion)8–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.0
- BALL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassBen Finley 22/40, 291 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordan Gant 19 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecTim Grear Jr. 4 REC, 87 YDS
- PassKiael Kelly 10/19, 121 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQua Ashley 20 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKoby Gross 3 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:54BALL +31%
Qua Ashley run for 69 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
- Q3 0:24AKR +25%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)
- Q2 1:26AKR +23%
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Schramm KICK)
- Q4 10:43BALL +20%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
- Q1 11:42AKR +20%
Israel Polk 19 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Johnson Jr. Pass to Max Whisner for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 5:52BALL +20%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 29 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Ball State?
Akron 28, Ball State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
| AKR | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 419 | Total yards | 374 |
| 291 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 22/40 | Comp/Att | 11/20 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-74 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 29:47 | Possession | 30:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:18 BALL punt on 4th & 3 at BALL 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:34BALLTJ Horton 90 Yd Kickoff Return (Carson Holmer Kick)28–42
- Q4 5:47AKRMatthew Schramm 19 Yd Field Goal 28–35
- Q4 10:43BALLKiael Kelly 1 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)25–35
- Q3 0:24AKRIsrael Polk 4 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)25–28
- Q3 5:52BALLKoby Gross 29 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)18–28
- Q3 7:28AKRMatthew Schramm 29 Yd Field Goal 18–21
- Q3 9:54BALLQua Ashley 69 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)15–21
- Q2 1:26AKRKyan Mason 37 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)15–14
- Q1 0:45BALLKiael Kelly 26 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)8–14
- Q1 6:13BALLKiael Kelly 3 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)8–7
- Q1 11:42AKRIsrael Polk 19 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Michael Johnson Jr. Pass to Max Whisner for Two-Point Conversion)8–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1028, AKR Elo 1018 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL -2.8 (59% to win) — 3.8 points clear of BALL's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 11–7 · Ball State has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| AKR | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | -27.9 (#133) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | -22 / +6 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →