Air Force vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 6:47NAVYNathan Kirkwood 34 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 10:59AFJonah Dawson 53 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)31–31
- Q4 12:55NAVYEli Heidenreich 60 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)24–31
- Q4 14:55AFBruin Fleischmann 18 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:52NAVYBlake Horvath 59 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:58AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:02NAVYEli Heidenreich 80 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–17
- Q2 8:46NAVYEli Heidenreich 19 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:29AFJacob Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 9:14AFLiam Szarka 7 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:22NAVYNathan Kirkwood 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassLiam Szarka 11/19, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLiam Szarka 25 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBruin Fleischmann 6 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Horvath 20/26, 339 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBlake Horvath 17 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 8 REC, 243 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:59AF +33%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q4 14:55AF +29%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q4 12:55NAVY +24%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q4 2:15NAVY +23%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
- Q3 9:58AF +22%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q2 8:46NAVY +20%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Navy?
Air Force 31, Navy 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| AF | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 460 | Total yards | 517 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 339 |
| 211 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 12/20 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 12.5 | Yards per pass | 13.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 8-49 |
| 32:28 | Possession | 27:32 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:00 NAVY punt on 4th & 1 at NAVY 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:47NAVYNathan Kirkwood 34 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 10:59AFJonah Dawson 53 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)31–31
- Q4 12:55NAVYEli Heidenreich 60 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)24–31
- Q4 14:55AFBruin Fleischmann 18 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:52NAVYBlake Horvath 59 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:58AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:02NAVYEli Heidenreich 80 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–17
- Q2 8:46NAVYEli Heidenreich 19 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:29AFJacob Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 9:14AFLiam Szarka 7 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:22NAVYNathan Kirkwood 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1547, AF Elo 1351 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -10.2 (76% to win) — 3.3 points clear of AF's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 34–24 · Navy has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| AF | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#43) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -27 | pass over expected | -20 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →