| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 7 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| NAVY | 3 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NAVY Elo 1547, AF Elo 1351) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -10.2 (78% to win) — 3.3 points of value on AF versus the market line of -13.5.
NAVY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 31, Navy 34.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 80 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Blake Horvath run for 59 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
