Western Kentucky vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsALA
- Q4 10:04ALATy Simpson 15 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–63
- Q3 2:51ALADaniel Hill 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–56
- Q3 6:30ALAJalen Milroe 21 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–49
- Q2 1:30ALARyan Williams 55 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–42
- Q2 2:53ALAJustice Haynes 85 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–35
- Q2 12:35ALAJam Miller 39 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:27ALARyan Williams 84 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:01ALAKendrick Law 22 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07ALAJalen Milroe 12 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ALA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassTJ Finley 18/31, 92 YDS, 2 INT
- RushElijah Young 10 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecMoussa Barry 4 REC, 27 YDS
- PassJalen Milroe 7/9, 200 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJustice Haynes 4 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Coleman-Williams 2 REC, 139 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 97 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:07ALA +8%
Jalen Milroe 12 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Alabama?
Western Kentucky 0, Alabama 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| WKU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Total yards | 600 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 42 | Rushing yards | 334 |
| 10 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-18 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/40 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 2.6 | Yards per pass | 14.8 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 29:25 | Possession | 30:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:26 WKU go for it on 4th & 5 at ALA 8. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:04ALATy Simpson 15 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–63
- Q3 2:51ALADaniel Hill 2 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–56
- Q3 6:30ALAJalen Milroe 21 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–49
- Q2 1:30ALARyan Williams 55 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–42
- Q2 2:53ALAJustice Haynes 85 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–35
- Q2 12:35ALAJam Miller 39 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:27ALARyan Williams 84 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:01ALAKendrick Law 22 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:07ALAJalen Milroe 12 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1854, WKU Elo 1466 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -17.9 (88% to win) — 16.1 points clear of WKU's market line of -34. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#100) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#12) |
| -1 / +10 | offense / defense | +7 / -11 |
| 2.23 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.46 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →