Toledo vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsMSST
- Q4 1:11TOLDylan Cunanan 23 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q4 6:11MSSTKevin Coleman Jr. 1 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)38–17
- Q4 12:20TOLDylan Cunanan 41 Yd Field Goal 38–10
- Q3 5:40MSSTMario Craver 9 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)35–10
- Q3 10:05TOLJerjuan Newton 15 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:09TOLWillie Shaw III 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)28–3
- Q2 5:09TOLConnor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–3
- Q2 9:35MSSTKyle Ferrie 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 13:26TOLJerjuan Newton 6 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:35TOLJunior Vandeross III 4 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TOL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 4.0
- PassTucker Gleason 23/28, 285 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWillie Shaw III 16 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 7 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Shapen 28/39, 319 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJohnnie Daniels 10 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 7 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 581 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:35TOL +18%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 13:26TOL +14%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 5:09TOL +10%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 9:35MSST +6%
Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Mississippi State?
Toledo 41, Mississippi State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| TOL | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 385 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 169 | Rushing yards | 66 |
| 26 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/28 | Comp/Att | 28/40 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 10-104 |
| 37:04 | Possession | 22:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:44 MSST go for it on 4th & 23 at MSST 9. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:11TOLDylan Cunanan 23 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q4 6:11MSSTKevin Coleman Jr. 1 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)38–17
- Q4 12:20TOLDylan Cunanan 41 Yd Field Goal 38–10
- Q3 5:40MSSTMario Craver 9 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)35–10
- Q3 10:05TOLJerjuan Newton 15 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:09TOLWillie Shaw III 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)28–3
- Q2 5:09TOLConnor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–3
- Q2 9:35MSSTKyle Ferrie 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 13:26TOLJerjuan Newton 6 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:35TOLJunior Vandeross III 4 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1440, TOL Elo 1524 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +1 (49% to win) — 12.5 points clear of TOL's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #40 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| TOL | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 (#67) | CORE overall | -9.1 (#97) |
| -8 / -7 | offense / defense | +2 / +11 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 2.00 |
| 1.68 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →