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Texas State vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 9, 5:00 PM
Malone StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 38 |
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ULM 1236
TXST 1586
Projected spread
ULM +11.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TXST
80% to win
Market spread
ULM +9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TXST
2.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
ULM · market 26%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ULM Elo 1236, TXST Elo 1586) plus home-field advantage. That projects ULM +11.6 (20% to win) — 2.1 points of value on TXST versus the market line of +9.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ULM (top)TXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ULM 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
TXST2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedULM
Offense
0.25
PPA / play
0.1548%
Success rate
37%1.21
Explosiveness
1.373.81
Pts / opportunity
3.3374%
Power success
74%Defense
0.14
PPA allowed / play
0.2039%
Success rate allowed
47%1.39
Explosiveness allowed
1.0919%
Havoc rate
13%21%
Stuff rate
12%Key matchups · Pro
- TXST pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.24 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ULM pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge TXST.
Drive-by-drive
TXST 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ULM 3/13 scoring drives
TXSTPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q1
TXSTTD9 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 37Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 1Q1
TXSTTD1 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1
ULMDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTTD6 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q2
ULMFUM5 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q2
TXSTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 38Q2
ULMPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 30Q2
TXSTTD14 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q2
ULMEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
ULMTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTPUNT4 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
ULMTD9 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3
TXSTPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
ULMPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 19Q3
TXSTPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q4
ULMINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 11Q4
TXSTFG6 pl, 18 yds· opp 33Q4
ULMFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q4
TXSTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ULMEND6 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TXST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
TXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. UL Monroe?
Texas State 38, UL Monroe 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.