Ole Miss vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsFLA
- Q4 7:40FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)17–24
- Q3 0:45MISSCaden Davis 42 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 10:57FLATrey Smack 53 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 6:52FLAJadan Baugh 25 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–14
- Q2 9:05MISSCayden Lee 22 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:01MISSTre Harris 43 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:56FLAElijhah Badger 8 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 4.9
- FLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 34% success rate
Ole Miss moved the ball all night and kept walking off the field with nothing. Florida didn't waste its chances — and a freshman quarterback walked off with the upset.
GAINESVILLE — Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards Saturday night, and he will spend the rest of the season trying to forget every one of them. The numbers on the back of the program said Ole Miss was the better team. The scoreboard at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium said something colder and more permanent: Florida 24, Ole Miss 17. The favorite came in, moved the ball at will, and lost anyway.
You could see the whole night coming in the first quarter. Ole Miss drove into Florida territory, the crowd braced, and JJ Pegues ran into a wall on the 11 and got nothing. No points. Just a long walk back to the sideline. It would become the theme of the evening — the Rebels marching down, the Rebels stalling, the Rebels handing the ball back like a tip.
- PassJaxson Dart 24/41, 323 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaxson Dart 14 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecCayden Lee 6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Lagway 10/17, 180 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMontrell Johnson Jr. 18 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijhah Badger 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:40FLA +40%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q2 14:56FLA +21%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q3 0:45MISS +21%
Caden Davis 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 12:01MISS +18%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 43 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
- Q4 9:20FLA +16%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 41 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST down
- Q2 6:52FLA +15%
DJ Lagway pass complete to Jadan Baugh for 25 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Florida?
Ole Miss 17, Florida 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 464 | Total yards | 344 |
| 323 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/42 | Comp/Att | 10/18 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 29:56 | Possession | 30:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:12 MISS punt on 4th & 3 at MISS 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:40FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)17–24
- Q3 0:45MISSCaden Davis 42 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 10:57FLATrey Smack 53 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 6:52FLAJadan Baugh 25 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–14
- Q2 9:05MISSCayden Lee 22 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:01MISSTre Harris 43 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:56FLAElijhah Badger 8 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1634, MISS Elo 2010 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +12.6 (21% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#62 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #19 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #10 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →The series is level at 13–13–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| MISS | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#4) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#33) |
| +13 / -16 | offense / defense | +4 / -7 |
| 3.20 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 1.21 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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The Swamp Ate Jaxson Dart Alive
Ole Miss moved the ball all night and kept walking off the field with nothing. Florida didn't waste its chances — and a freshman quarterback walked off with the upset.
The second quarter turned into a track meet, and for a few minutes Dart looked unstoppable. A 43-yard strike to Tre Harris. Three minutes later a 22-yarder to Cayden Lee. Two touchdowns, two beautiful throws, and a building that suddenly went quiet. But Florida had a freshman of its own, and D.J. Lagway didn't blink. He answered with an eight-yard touchdown to Elijhah Badger, then a 25-yard dart to Jadan Baugh, and the game was knotted at the half — except it wasn't really even, because one team was leaving points all over the grass.
Points Left on the Field
Caden Davis lined up for a 34-yard field goal late in the half — a gimme — and pushed it. Another empty trip. In the third quarter Ole Miss got all the way down to the Florida 10, and again Pegues ran into the line and the pile didn't move. Three times the Rebels got inside the 20, and three times they came away with nothing but a missed kick and two dead drives. A team can survive a night like that against a tomato can. Not in The Swamp.
Florida, meanwhile, took what it was given and cashed it. Lagway hit Chimere Dike for 41 yards down to the Ole Miss 26 in the fourth, and this time the drive didn't die. Montrell Johnson Jr., who pounded out 107 yards on the ground, finished it himself — nine yards, head down, into the end zone — and the home underdog had the lead it would not give back.
Now Dart needed a drive, and the kid who'd thrown for 323 came apart at the worst possible moment. With under two minutes left he threw it up and Bryce Thornton was waiting — interception, touchback. Ole Miss got the ball back one last time, and at 0:17 Dart threw it right to Thornton again. Two picks to the same man inside the final ninety seconds. The Swamp roared, and the favorite was finished.
Strip away everything and the story is plain football: one team kept getting close and kept getting nothing, and the other one didn't waste a single chance it earned. Dart will out-stat this loss in every box score they print. He'll also remember it longer than any of them. Florida didn't win because it was better. Florida won because, when the field shrank to twenty yards and the night got heavy, it finished and Ole Miss could not.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →