| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| HAW | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1167, NEV Elo 1267) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW +1.6 (45% to win) — 3.6 points of value on NEV versus the market line of -2.
HAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 840 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nevada 13, Hawai'i 34.
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had NEV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 63 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Nalu Emerson return for no gain to the HAW 32
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Michael Coats Jr. return for no gain to the NEV 14
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